--- title: "Anthropic IPO Could Reach $2T. The Headwinds Are Already Here" slug: anthropic-ipo-2-trillion-headwinds-sep2026 date_published: 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z original_url: https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-ipo-2-trillion-headwinds-sep2026 source: fresh processed_at: 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z --- # Anthropic IPO Could Reach $2T. The Headwinds Are Already Here Reuters reports Anthropic's IPO could value it at more than $2T. Keeping aside the company's own numbers, a 2025 loss and an adjusted profit so far in 2026, it is going into a headwind of economic pressure, an ongoing bond market rout, Chinese open-weight competitors right on its heels and rising opposition to data centers. On the technology I have no doubt. Pretty much all my work runs on Claude Code, and my public analytics tool site [tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) is built and secured with it. My questions are about the valuation and the cash, and how soon the business turns cash positive... as it goes into a tough market.. and there are parallels with the dot com boom, bust and growth cycle. The filing is confidential and these figures come from news reports. Personal view. Not investment advice. ## The Pentagon ruling, the founders' votes and the listing A few more points from the news reports. - On 25 September a US appeals court upheld the Pentagon's label of Anthropic as a supply chain risk, which the Defense Department says means it threatens national security. Two days later President Trump had a private dinner with Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei at the White House. On 29 September Amodei was among the tech leaders who signed a voluntary AI safety accord with Trump, the White House Accord on Super Intelligence, which Trump called morally binding. - The seven co-founders will direct a single share carrying 50.1 per cent of the voting power on key corporate decisions, including the election of some directors. - The listing is expected on Nasdaq, and is likely to come after the November US midterm elections, per Reuters. ## Earlier related notes - AI valuations, 31 August: the ECB says a correction is more likely. [https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026) - A free Chinese model and cyber attacks, 30 September: in Anthropic's tests GLM-5.3 came close to Claude Mythos Preview, and NIST puts it about four months behind the best US models. [https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026) - AI build and the bond rout, 28 September: the five hyperscalers have nearly doubled their borrowing since 2023. [https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-hyperscalers-debt-bond-rout-sep2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-hyperscalers-debt-bond-rout-sep2026) :::image-deck folder: /files/ANTHROPIC_IPO_FILING_SEP2026 pdf: /files/ANTHROPIC_IPO_FILING_SEP2026.pdf title: Anthropic IPO Could Reach $2T. The Headwinds Are Already Here ::: --- ## Full analysis transcript (extracted from PDF deck) _This text was extracted from the source PowerPoint deck. Chart visuals are in the PDF and slide images on the HTML page._ ## Slide 1 TIGZIG 30 September 2026 Anthropic IPO could reach $2T. The headwinds are already here Anthropic lost 42 billion dollars in 2025, mostly a non-cash charge, on revenue of 4.6 billion. In 2026 it reported a positive adjusted operating profit for the second quarter, and expects another in the third. The company - Revenue pace above 100 billion a year in September. - 2 trillion is about 20 times that pace. - About 414 of 518 billion of commitments over ten years must be paid. - Many large clients have no long-term contract. - Suppliers Amazon, Google and Microsoft are also investors. Market headwinds - 10-year yield at 5.26%, level with its 2007 high. - Inflation 3.4%, diesel above 6 dollars, job growth slowing. - Iran war continues, pressure on oil. - Opposition to data centres widespread. - A free Chinese model about four months behind the US in cyber. **IMPORTANT:** the IPO filing is confidential. The 2025 figures are from Reuters, which has seen it. The 2026 figures are preliminary press reports. All may differ from the final filing. Sources are on each page. Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI1 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 2 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## At 18 to 20 times sales, 2 trillion implies about 100 billion a year, close to the reported revenue pace - Reuters reports the IPO could value Anthropic at more than 2 trillion dollars. - Morningstar's chief equity strategist, Michael Field, put that at around 18 to 20 times sales. - Second quarter revenue was a preliminary 11.5 billion or more, with a positive adjusted operating profit. Anthropic has told shareholders it expects another in the third quarter. Revenue and implied sales, billion dollars 2025, full year 4.6 Run rate, July 2026 65 Revenue pace, September 2026 100+ Implied at 18 to 20x sales 100 to 111 Reported figures. The implied row is our arithmetic on the Morningstar multiple. Sources[Reuters 28 Sep](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/) | [29 Sep](https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-sharpens-focus-ai-valuations-2026-09-29/) | [Bloomberg via CNBC 15 Aug](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html) | [CNBC 17 Aug](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/anthropic-says-annualized-revenue-climbed-to-65-billion-in-july.html) | [Reuters 13 Sep](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/anthropic-tells-investors-it-will-be-profitable-second-straight-quarter-ft-2026-09-13/) | [Axios 18 Sep](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/anthropic-100-billion-revenue) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI2 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 3 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## In 2025, the last full year, Anthropic made an operating loss of more than 8 billion dollars on 4.6 billion of revenue Billion dollars 4.6 - Revenue -7.3 1.6x revenue* Computing -5.3* Other costs -8.1* Operating loss -34 Non-cash charge -42 Net loss How customers paid **3.8** by usage **0.8** subscriptions How it was sold **2.2** via Amazon and Google **2.4*** other channels The 34 billion is a non-cash accounting charge on financing that may turn into shares. - 2026 looks different. Anthropic reported a positive adjusted operating profit for the second quarter, on preliminary revenue of 11.5 billion dollars or more (page 2). * Our arithmetic from the reported figures. SourcesReuters, 28 and 29 Sep: [Anthropic prospectus](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/) | [Anthropic 518 billion build](https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-518-billion-ai-buildout-hinges-largely-deals-that-cannot-be-canceled-2026-09-29/) | [Anthropic's partners](https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI3 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 4 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## About 414 of the 518 billion dollars of computing commitments must be paid The costs are fixed 518 billion dollars of computing over about ten years. About 414 must be paid (our sum). - **Broadcom 161**, equipment leases - **Google 111**, to 2033, Anthropic pays any shortfall - **Amazon 110**, to 2036, Anthropic pays any shortfall - **Microsoft 31**, to 2033, non-cancellable - **xAI (SpaceX) 84.5**, to 2029, largely cancellable - **AMD 20+**, terms not reported Much of the revenue is not locked in - **Most revenue is paid by usage**, 3.8 of the 4.6 billion in 2025. - **Many of the largest clients have no long-term contract.** - **Two customers were about 12 per cent of revenue each.** - **47 per cent was sold through Amazon and Google**, which are also suppliers and investors. SourcesReuters, 28 and 29 Sep: [Anthropic prospectus](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/) | [Anthropic 518 billion build](https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-518-billion-ai-buildout-hinges-largely-deals-that-cannot-be-canceled-2026-09-29/) | [Anthropic's partners](https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI4 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 5 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## A free Chinese model is about four months behind the US frontier in cyber, NIST says "A critical threshold in freely accessible capabilities has now been crossed," Anthropic, 29 September 2026 In Anthropic's tests GLM-5.3 built working exploits almost as often as Claude Mythos Preview. Anyone can download it. NIST says its cyber capabilities are still significantly lower than current US frontier models. A free model this close to the frontier can put pressure on what customers pay for AI. NIST Figure 1, as published 17 September. Blue: US models. Red: PRC-based. Sources[Anthropic 29 Sep](https://www.anthropic.com/research/glm-5-3-and-the-spread-of-advanced-cyber-capabilities) | [NIST 17 Sep](https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/09/caisis-assessment-zais-glm-53-cyber-capabilities) | [GLM-5.3 cyber deck](https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI5 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 6 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## The IPO is coming into headwinds Bond yields are at their highest since 2007 The 10-year closed at 5.26% on 29 September, level with its June 2007 high. It sets the cost of money, and bears on profits, growth and asset valuations. 5.26%, 29 Sep 2026 10-year yield since 2006 5.26%, Jun 2007 The economy is under pressure Inflation is 3.4% on the Fed's PCE measure in August, against a 2% target. Diesel hit a record 6.53 dollars a gallon in dollar terms on 21 September, and the cost is moving through the economy. The Iran war continues and keeps pressure on oil. Job growth has slowed from 3.2% a year in early 2023 to 0.4%. Opposition to data centres is widespread Opponents blocked or delayed 45 projects totalling about 68 billion dollars in the second quarter, more than half of the new large projects tracked, says Data Center Watch. There are 843 opposition groups across 49 states. New York paused state environmental permits for new hyperscale data centres in July. Sources[Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026) | [BEA](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026) | [Bond rout deck](https://www.tigzig.com/post/bond-market-rout-sep2026) | [Jobs deck](https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-jobs-calm-before-storm-sep2026) | [Diesel](https://www.tigzig.com/post/diesel-above-six-dollars-sep2026) | [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-09-22/ai-backlash-puts-68-billion-in-u-s-data-center-projects-on-hold) | [NY Governor](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/first-statewide-moratorium-new-hyperscale-data-centers-launched-governor-kathy-hochul) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI6 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 7 TIGZIGAnthropic IPO ## The filing also warns that AI could pose existential risks A warning about the product The filing, as reported by Reuters, says advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity". Models could show "self-preserving behaviors", including attempts to "resist shutdown" or "conceal or manipulate information", and behavior "resembling blackmail". Testing has a limit "Potential model awareness of our evaluation efforts creates a significant limitation on our ability to assess model safety," the filing says. The suppliers are also owners Amazon, Google and Microsoft invest in Anthropic, sell its models and compete with it. The filing says their incentives "may not be fully aligned". Amazon booked a 53.4 billion dollar paper gain in the June quarter, mostly from marking up its Anthropic shares. Microsoft booked a 3.2 billion dollar gain on its Anthropic stake in the same quarter. Sources[Reuters, 29 Sep: existential risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropic-warns-ai-may-pose-existential-risks-humanity-ipo-filing-2026-09-29/) | [Reuters, 29 Sep: 518 billion build](https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-518-billion-ai-buildout-hinges-largely-deals-that-cannot-be-canceled-2026-09-29/) | [Amazon 10-Q, Jun 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm) | [CNBC, 29 Jul](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI7 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 8 TIGZIGMy read My read ## Technology, no doubt. Valuation and cash, open questions - **On cash** It now reports an adjusted operating profit. I would want to see when it turns cash positive, and at what cash margins. Some companies run at a loss for years and then turn. But the longer cash stays negative, the more it becomes a question of survival. - **On the technology, I have no doubt** All my work runs on Claude Code today, and tigzig.com is built with it. It is the tool I recommend to my clients. - **The dot com years** In the first wave, the technology and the page views were real, but there was little revenue. The internet did pay off, after the bust. In this wave, the technology and the revenue are real, but the cash profit does not seem to be there yet. I believe AI will ultimately pay off. Who is still standing five or ten years from now, and who benefits, is hard to say. This is my personal view, for information only. It is not investment advice. Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI8 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) --- ## Slide 9 TIGZIGEarlier ## Earlier AI valuations and warnings Pressure on AI valuations, and the cash and debt behind the build. 30 Sep 2026[A free Chinese model close to Mythos Preview](https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026) 28 Sep 2026[The biggest tech build meets the bond rout](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-hyperscalers-debt-bond-rout-sep2026) 7 Sep 2026[The FSB chair warns the G20](https://www.tigzig.com/post/fsb-chair-bailey-warning-sep2026) 31 Aug 2026[A correction in AI valuations looks more likely](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026) Bond market pressure Long rates rose while the Fed cut, and the 10-year is back above 5%. 25 Sep 2026[Bond markets have started acting](https://www.tigzig.com/post/bond-market-rout-sep2026) 6 Sep 2026[Bond markets are sounding an alarm](https://www.tigzig.com/post/bond-markets-alarm-sep2026) Jobs and costs Diesel above 6 dollars a gallon and what it does to the economy, and a job market weaker under its headline. 26 Sep 2026[US diesel is above 6 dollars a gallon](https://www.tigzig.com/post/diesel-above-six-dollars-sep2026) 24 Sep 2026[The US job market, under the headline](https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-jobs-calm-before-storm-sep2026) More at [tigzig.com/analysis](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis) Amar Harolikar **·** Decision Sciences & Applied AI9 of 9[tigzig.com](https://www.tigzig.com) ## Related Tools: [TREMOR - Macro Stress Signals](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor), [QDesk - Quant Report Desk](https://www.tigzig.com/qdesk) Explore: [Analysis hub](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis), [TREMOR API docs](https://www.tigzig.com/apis/tremor), [The deck as a PDF](https://www.tigzig.com/files/ANTHROPIC_IPO_FILING_SEP2026.pdf) More posts: [A Free Chinese AI Model Built Working Cyber Attacks Almost as Often as Claude Mythos Preview](https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026), [The Biggest Tech Build Meets the Bond Rout of 2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-hyperscalers-debt-bond-rout-sep2026), [A Correction in AI Valuations Is Looking More Likely, and That View Now Comes From a Central Bank, an Asset Manager and a Bond Investor.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026), [Bond Markets Have Been Warning for Months. Now They Have Started Acting.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/bond-market-rout-sep2026), [US Diesel Is Above $6 a Gallon for the First Time, and the Cost Is Already Moving Through the Economy](https://www.tigzig.com/post/diesel-above-six-dollars-sep2026) --- Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar Source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-ipo-2-trillion-headwinds-sep2026 Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar. License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms