# Bank Loss Rates Look Calm. The Stuff Underneath - Consumer, Private Credit, Non-Banks - Says Otherwise. Published: 2026-06-04 US bank net charge-offs at 0.58% in Q1 2026 - right at pre-GFC, miles under the GFC peak, so the headline number looks calm. But pull the consumer book out and consumer NCO is already running hotter than pre-GFC at 2.9% vs 2.5% in 2007 - cards highest, auto rising. The sharpest stress sits off the bank books: most private credit losses are marked-to-market and hit P&L directly, never showing as a charge-off. Credit unions and non-bank consumer lenders carry the weakest paper, which loops back to banks via their non-bank and private credit lines. The macro is weak across unemployment, savings rate, producer inflation, oil and gas - all moving the wrong way. The bank NCO looks calm; the stuff it can't show (consumer cards, private credit mark-to-market, non-bank consumer lenders) says otherwise. Analysis supported by TIGZIG TREMOR self-serve analytics tool covering FDIC, NY Fed, NCUA and private-credit series. ## Where to find the full content - HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/bank-loss-rates-look-calm-storm-brewing-may2026 - Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/bank-loss-rates-look-calm-storm-brewing-may2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown` ## Tags portfolio-quants --- Note: this is a short text-only post (release announcement / brief commentary). The full body lives at the HTML page URL above - there is no deck source or PDF transcript for this one. The image referenced in the body (if any) is a generic illustration, not analytical content. ## Related Tools: [TREMOR - Macro Stress Signals](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor), [Quants Agent](https://www.tigzig.com/n8n-tech-analysis) Explore: [Private Credit & NDFI Tracker](https://www.tigzig.com/private-credit), [Market tools hub](https://www.tigzig.com/markets), [Analysis hub](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis) More posts: [Banks Holding the Line.. But the 'Lemons' Sit Off the Chart. In Private Credit, Credit Unions, and Non-Bank Consumer Lenders.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/banks-holding-line-lemons-off-chart-may2026), [The Convergence Risk. Credit Stress Already Past 2007 Pre-Crisis. Five Aggravators Stacking On Top.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007), [Auto Losses Past the GFC Peak. Cards Almost There. Credit Unions Already at GFC Loss Rates. NY Fed + NCUA Data Now on Tigzig.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/consumer-credit-stress-fed-ncua-jun2026), [Banks Keep Funding the Non-Banks. $1.65T in Q1 2026, Up 42% in Five Quarters. US Banks NDFI Update.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-banks-ndfi-q1-2026-update-may2026) --- Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar Source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/bank-loss-rates-look-calm-storm-brewing-may2026 Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar. License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms