# The Convergence Risk. Credit Stress Already Past 2007 Pre-Crisis. Five Aggravators Stacking On Top.

Published: 2026-04-29

Multiple credit stress signals at the same time across US banks, credit unions, consumer debt. Past 2007 pre-crisis on most metrics. Auto loans already at GFC peak. 5 aggravators on top - AI labor shock, U-1 above 2007, GDP at 0.5%, Brent $100+, private credit stress with $2.5T+ exposure. Warnings from Jamie Dimon and Sarah Breeden.

## Where to find the full content

- HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007
- Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007 with header `Accept: text/markdown`
- PDF deck (full analysis, charts, sources): https://tigzig.com/files/CONVERGENCE_RISK_29APR2026.pdf

## Tags
portfolio-quants

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## Full analysis transcript (extracted from PDF deck)

_This text was extracted from the source PowerPoint deck. Chart visuals (referenced as "no text content - see PNG at /files/...") are in the PDF and slide images on the HTML page._

## Delinquencies and losses past pre GFC levels

Some sectors at GFC peaks

US Lending Crisis

Amar Harolikar

Decision Sciences & Applied AISpecialist – Banking Analytics

29th  April 2026

35%+ of Total Loans*

The Convergence Risk Across Consumer

& Commercial Banking

[tremor.tigzig.com](http://tremor.tigzig.com/)

*Consumer + C&I as % of total loans for Banks & Credit Unions

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## BANKS

Consumer and commercial net charge-offs on rising trend and breached 2007 pre-crisis level (Q3-2007)

Source: FDIC SDI via [tremor.tigzig.com](https://tremor.tigzig.com/)

4400+ FDIC Insured Banks

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## CREDIT UNIONS

Net charge-offs across all loans touching 2X of pre-crisis levels (Q3-2007). Consumer the worst

Source: NCUA Quarterly Aggregate FPR via [tremor.tigzig.com](https://tremor.tigzig.com/)

4200+ Federally Insured CUs

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## NY FED CONSUMER

Consumer 90+ DPD including charge-offs breached 2007 pre crisis. Auto loans at GFC peak.

Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax  via [Tigzig Tremor platform](https://tremor.tigzig.com/)

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## PRIVATECREDIT

$2.5T+

Private credit under stress. Bank lending to non bank lenders more than $1.5T

LABOR MARKET

1.8%

U-1 long-term unemployed already above 2007

ENERGY

$100+

Geopolitical supply risk elevated. Brent $100+. Normalization takes months.

AI LABOR SHOCK

9X

Duke CFO Survey projects AI-attributed layoffs 9x 2025 baseline

GDP

0.5%

US Q4’25 GDP growth rate down to 0.5%

Convergence risk - multiple shocks at same time

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## Warnings

Jamie Dimon, CEO JPMorgan Chase

"We haven't had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think. It might be terrible."

Jamie Dimon warns of 'bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build, CNBC, Apr 28, 2026

Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor, Bank of England (Financial Stability)

"There's a lot of risk out there and yet asset prices are at all-time highs. We expect there will be an adjustment at some point…The thing that really keeps me awake at night is the likelihood of a number of risks crystallising at the same time - a major macroeconomic shock, confidence in private credit goes, AI and other risky valuations readjust - what happens in that environment and are we prepared for it?"

Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy, BBC News, Apr 24,2026

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## At this pace, the setup is worse than pre-GFC 2007. Add the aggravating factors and we could exceed GFC levels

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## Data & Tools

Primary Data Sources

NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax

FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions

NCUA Quarterly Aggregate FPR

TREMOR - [tremor.tigzig.com](https://tremor.tigzig.com/)

Early Warning Macro Signals

Charts & Analytics