--- title: "Is Copper Another Bubble After Silver and Gold? ING: The Move Towards $15,000 a Tonne \"Had Run Ahead of Current Fundamentals\"" slug: copper-bubble-after-silver-gold-nov2026 date_published: 2026-11-09T14:02:00.000Z original_url: https://www.tigzig.com/post/copper-bubble-after-silver-gold-nov2026 source: fresh processed_at: 2026-11-09T14:02:00.000Z --- # Is Copper Another Bubble After Silver and Gold? ING: The Move Towards $15,000 a Tonne "Had Run Ahead of Current Fundamentals" Copper's price looks disconnected from the fundamentals and may be another bubble, after silver's 55% fall and gold's 25% fall. A US stockpile built on a tariff bet, and mine outages, are behind part of the rise. The basic balance of supply and demand does not explain the rest. **Near balance in tonnes** ICSG sees a 2026 surplus of 104,000 tonnes and 368,000 in 2027. Macquarie sees surpluses averaging over 700,000 a year to 2030, and says prices "have disconnected from the fundamentals". BMO and BMI see deficits from 2027. ING wrote on 10 Sep that the move towards $15,000 a tonne "had run ahead of current fundamentals". **AI is small in tonnes.** S&P Global puts data-centre use at 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, which I calculate as 4% of world demand. On S&P's path it grows by about 0.09 million tonnes a year, against about 0.9 million for all demand. **The stockpile is the larger number.** Traders pulled metal into US warehouses ahead of a possible duty on refined copper. BMO puts the hoard near 2 million tonnes, about a year of US use. The World Bank says the rally partly reflects mining disruptions, and that the US inflow tightened supply elsewhere and lifted London. BMO reads it differently: $14,500 to $15,000 a tonne is "fundamentally supported", because the metal moved from hidden to visible stocks. Macquarie rates a decision against the duty least likely, but says it would most likely collapse the CME price and take LME with it. The duty could start on 1 Jan 2027 at the earliest. **The tariff markup is almost gone.** COMEX is the US price and LME is London's. COMEX traded $2,964 a tonne above LME on 25 Jul 2025, 30% higher. On 6 Nov the two were about level. Since January 2025 COMEX is up 55% and LME is up 56%, so the rise is in the global price. Of the $1,435 fall from the 9 Sep record, $1,024 is London and $411 is the US premium, about 70/30. **Funds built up, then cut.** From the end of 2024 to the 22 Sep peak, funds' net long rose by about 87,000 contracts, about 1 million tonnes of exposure, mostly from shorts closing. At the 22 Sep peak that net long was higher than in 96% of the weeks since 2010. Since then it has fallen 58% to 35,000 contracts, the 2025 average. **Against past peaks.** In today's dollars the record is within 3% of the 2011 peak and within 7% of 2006, on either price index. It is above 2008. The 2006 peak fell 41% and was regained only on the day of the 2008 peak. That peak fell 69% and took 2.4 years to recover. The 2011 peak fell 58% and took 10.2 years. Falls and recovery times use actual prices. My earlier analysis of the potential bubbles in silver, gold and AI valuations: ▸ Silver, 6 Nov [tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026) ▸ Gold held $4,000 three times, 30 Oct [tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026) ▸ A bust likely before AI pays off, 1 Nov [tigzig.com/post/ai-selloff-red-flags-piling-up-nov2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-selloff-red-flags-piling-up-nov2026) ## Sources and links Mining.com, 14 Oct: ICSG, Macquarie, BMO, stocks [mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table](https://www.mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table/) ING Think, 10 Sep: prices ahead of fundamentals [think.ing.com/articles/tariff-uncertainty-tests-coppers-record-rally](https://think.ing.com/articles/tariff-uncertainty-tests-coppers-record-rally/) World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Oct 2026 [thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/original/CMO-October-2026.pdf](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/original/CMO-October-2026.pdf) S&P Global via Crux Investor: data-centre copper [cruxinvestor.com/posts/127-data-center-copper-demand-growth-by-2040-raises-need-for-new-mines](https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/127-data-center-copper-demand-growth-by-2040-raises-need-for-new-mines) Bloomberg Linea, 4 Nov: spread after the midterms [bloomberglinea.com/mercados/el-cobre-recorta-perdidas-y-supera-los-us14000-por-tonelada-tras-las-elecciones-de-eeuu](https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/el-cobre-recorta-perdidas-y-supera-los-us14000-por-tonelada-tras-las-elecciones-de-eeuu/) CFTC positions [cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm) ## The other side ▸ Copper is cheap against gold: 652 pounds of copper per ounce of gold, against a median of 477 since 2011. ▸ Outside the US, visible stocks are down 168,000 tonnes this year (Mining.com, 14 Oct). ▸ BMO calls $14,500 to $15,000 a tonne fundamentally supported. Copper closed at $13,751. ▸ Fund net long is back at its 2025 average, the 74th percentile since 2010. ## Data notes ▸ Prices are 6 Nov closes. COMEX is the most-active contract, LME the three-month contract. Close times differ, so a day can be off by $100. ▸ COMEX minus LME: +$2,964 on 25 Jul 2025, +$405 at the 9 Sep record, -$7 on 6 Nov. ▸ Refined copper was exempted late on 30 Jul 2025. COMEX fell 22% next day, LME 1.1%. ▸ Funds are CFTC managed money in COMEX copper. The 87,000 contracts run from -4,319 on 31 Dec 2024 to 82,522. ▸ On PCE the record is 2% above 2011 and 6% above 2006. On CPI it is 3% below 2011 and level with 2006. ▸ The 4%, 0.09 and 0.9 million tonnes are my arithmetic from S&P's figures. The US stockpile is an estimate. Analysis of public sources, for information only. Not investment advice. ![Is copper another bubble after silver and gold? A one-pager: the copper price with its record and the 22% one-day fall, fund longs, shorts and net long, tonnes of stockpile, surplus and AI demand, and the 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2022 drawdowns](/images/blog/CopperBubbleNov2026.png) --- Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar Source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/copper-bubble-after-silver-gold-nov2026 Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar. License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms ## Related Tools: [TREMOR - Macro Stress Signals](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor), [QDesk - Quant Report Desk](https://www.tigzig.com/qdesk), [Quant Apps](https://www.tigzig.com/markets) Explore: [Analysis archive](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis), [API and MCP catalog](https://www.tigzig.com/apis), [Download hub](https://www.tigzig.com/downloads) More posts: [Silver Is 56% Below Its Peak: Hedge Funds Cut Their Bets From August While ETFs and Physical Buyers Kept Buying](https://www.tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026), [Gold Is 26% Off Its Peak and Testing $4,000 for the Third Time](https://www.tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026), [The Red Flags Keep Piling Up: OpenAI Cuts Its Funding Target, AI Stocks Fall Hard and the Stressors Build](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-selloff-red-flags-piling-up-nov2026), [Could This Time Be Different? 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