# Hormuz Is Quietly Opening. The First Good News in 100 Days. And It Is Running in Two Lanes. Published: 2026-06-05 A trickle of tankers is getting out of the Strait of Hormuz again - the first real relief after more than three months of a shut chokepoint. But how they are getting out is the interesting bit. There is not one quiet arrangement, there are two. One lane Iran controls and charges a toll for, close to the Iranian coast (most traffic this way - CSIS says half the vessels since early March are from just four countries with China at the top). One lane the US Navy quietly watches over near the Oman coast - mines cleared, ~70 ships guided through in three weeks per New York Times sources; officially the US says it is not escorting, just coordinating. Tankers go dark on both sides - on Iran's lane to stay off the Western sanctions record, on the US lane to not broadcast their position to Iran. Use Iran's lane and you risk US sanctions; use the US lane and you risk an Iranian attack. Per Kpler, of the ~895 ships that crossed early March to mid-May, just over half took Iran's route and about 40% went by a route nobody can quite place - that 40% is the story. Producers shut in ~11 mbd; Energy Aspects: oil flow recovery will be slow, uneven and possibly incomplete. Gulf producers are even building pipelines to go around Hormuz. The US-Iran interim memo (30-60 days) is in the final stretch, leaving the strait basically under Iranian control however the fees end up dressed. Opening, yes - real. Solved, no. ## Where to find the full content - HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/hormuz-quietly-opening-jun2026 - Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/hormuz-quietly-opening-jun2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown` ## Tags portfolio-quants --- Note: this is a short text-only post (release announcement / brief commentary). The full body lives at the HTML page URL above - there is no deck source or PDF transcript for this one. The image referenced in the body (if any) is a generic illustration, not analytical content. ## Related Tools: [TREMOR - Macro Stress Signals](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor), [Quants Agent](https://www.tigzig.com/n8n-tech-analysis), [QRep - Security Reports](https://www.tigzig.com/qrep) Explore: [Quant Apps hub](https://www.tigzig.com/markets), [Analysis deck](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis), [Macro data APIs and MCP](https://www.tigzig.com/apis) More posts: [The Masking Effect in Oil Markets - The Price You See on Screens Is Hiding a $50 Supply Shock](https://www.tigzig.com/post/oil-masking-effect-spot-futures-divergence-apr2026), [Markets Are Celebrating an Iran Deal. Nobody Has Agreed Which Deal. Peace Is Balanced on Loss of Face.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/iran-deal-fragility-peace-on-loss-of-face-jun2026), [Three Red Flags Hit Together. 30Y at 5.14%, PPI at 5.99%, Brent Above $100. Setup Worse Than 2000 or 2007.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/three-red-flags-30yr-ppi-oil-may2026), [Which Chart Is the Odd One Out? Three Macro Charts Tell the Same Story. One Doesn't.](https://www.tigzig.com/post/spot-the-odd-chart-out-may2026) --- Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar Source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/hormuz-quietly-opening-jun2026 Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar. License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms