--- title: "Silver Is 56% Below Its Peak: Hedge Funds Cut Their Bets From August While ETFs and Physical Buyers Kept Buying" slug: silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026 date_published: 2026-11-06T13:48:00.000Z original_url: https://www.tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026 source: fresh processed_at: 2026-11-06T13:48:00.000Z --- # Silver Is 56% Below Its Peak: Hedge Funds Cut Their Bets From August While ETFs and Physical Buyers Kept Buying Hedge funds were selling into silver's rise from the second half of 2025, and ETF buyers and physical buyers kept buying. Silver has fallen further than gold, but it is part of a wider move. **It began with bullish expectations in early 2025.** Uncertainty was high and silver looked cheap against gold. Hedge funds and ETFs both bought, and the hedge funds' futures position was up about 2.6 times by June. **Tariff fear then changed the market.** Silver was put on the draft US critical minerals list in August, and traders feared a tariff. Metal moved out of London into US vaults, London lease rates had spiked five times by September, and by September only 17% of the silver in London vaults was available outside funds. **The squeeze came in October.** From August hedge funds cut their silver bets while ETFs bought about twice as much as in the first half. By the January top the hedge funds' net long was down more than 80%. Silver went from about $36 to $117 over the same months. CNBC reported that the 30 Jan crash was first triggered by reports of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair. Silver fell 27% in a day, and CME margin hikes announced that day then deepened the fall. **Since then the reasons have been a mix.** India restricted silver imports in May. Reuters reported that imports fell to 46.8 tonnes that month from 534.3 a year earlier, and that this could weigh on global prices. In late October India issued permits for about 6,500 tonnes over six months, which Reuters said could support prices. Silver used in solar panels is forecast to fall 19% this year. ETFs have sold about 60 million ounces this year. Inflation and rates stay high, and jewellery demand is lower. Silver fell 58% from the peak to its 30 Oct low of $48.90. **Then came the US midterms.** Democrats took Congress, silver and gold bounced, and Wall Street then fell hard on AI worries. Silver closed at $51.78 on 5 Nov, still 56% below its peak. **What next?** Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone called $50 the first good support on 13 Oct and sees a risk of lower prices, with the 10-year mean near $31. Sucden Financial says silver could rebound to between $57 and $60 by mid-January, after a dip to $50 to $53. The World Bank forecasts a 2027 average of $62, about 20% above today's price, and sees demand softening as high prices cut solar and jewellery use. Gold is about 25% below its January peak, and the Nasdaq about 12% below its early-October high. My earlier analysis: Gold, 30 Oct: [tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026) A bust likely before AI pays off, 1 Nov: [tigzig.com/post/ai-selloff-red-flags-piling-up-nov2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-selloff-red-flags-piling-up-nov2026) More analysis at [tigzig.com/analysis](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis) ## Nuances behind the chart - Hedge funds here means managed money in COMEX silver futures, per the CFTC. Net long was 17,170 contracts at end 2024, 49,488 on 18 Mar 2025, 44,927 on 1 Jul and 7,699 at the January top. They added again in Aug to Sep. Their long bets stayed near $11bn in dollars. Net of shorts, the dollar position roughly halved. London and physical trading are not in this data. - ETFs bought 278 million ounces in 2025 against 67.5 million in 2024 (Metals Focus). - The 58% is the fall to the 30 Oct low of $48.90. The 5 Nov close of $51.78 was 56% below the peak close of $116.58. - CME margin hikes raise the cash needed to hold futures, forcing leveraged sales. Sources differ on size, so no figures. - The drawdown strip covers falls of 25% or more from a closing high since 2000, on spot silver closes. The 1980 peak is not in it. ## Source links - CFTC positions: [cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm) - Silver Institute, H1 2025, via Kitco: [kitco.com/news/article/2025-07-10/silver-investment-ramps-2025-etf-inflows-already-surpass-all-2024-silver](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-07-10/silver-investment-ramps-2025-etf-inflows-already-surpass-all-2024-silver) - Lease rates, 9 Sep 2025, via Kitco: [kitco.com/news/article/2025-09-09/silver-lease-rates-remain-elevated-after-spiking-fifth-time-year](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-09-09/silver-lease-rates-remain-elevated-after-spiking-fifth-time-year) - McGlone via Kitco, 13 Oct: [kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-13/silver-prices-could-be-headed-back-50-bloombergs-mcglone](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-13/silver-prices-could-be-headed-back-50-bloombergs-mcglone) - CNBC, 30 Jan: [cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-dollar-fed-warsh-chair-trump-metals.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-dollar-fed-warsh-chair-trump-metals.html) - Reuters, via BNN Bloomberg: [bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/02/02/gold-silver-fall-further-as-cme-margin-hike-stokes-selling](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/02/02/gold-silver-fall-further-as-cme-margin-hike-stokes-selling/) - Reuters, via Kitco: [kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-08/india-silver-import-curbs-create-shortages-push-premiums-six-month](https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-08/india-silver-import-curbs-create-shortages-push-premiums-six-month) - World Bank outlook, Oct 2026 (silver forecast p. 21): [thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/original/CMO-October-2026.pdf](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/original/CMO-October-2026.pdf) - Wall Street, 5 Nov, via Kitco: [kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-05/gold-holds-gains-silver-slips-wall-street-plunges-fed-hike-bets-ease-kitco](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-05/gold-holds-gains-silver-slips-wall-street-plunges-fed-hike-bets-ease-kitco) Analysis of public sources, for information only. Not investment advice. ![Silver fell 58% from its peak: hedge funds cut their bets from August as the price tripled, ETFs kept buying, with the price chart, the drivers of the rise and the fall, and the drawdown strip](/images/blog/SilverOnepagerNov2026.png) --- Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar Source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026 Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar. 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