# Are We Headed for Stagflation-Lite Published: 2026-03-28 Stagflation-Lite signals intensifying. Fed trapped between inflation and weak jobs. US 10Y at 4.4%, PPI at 3.4% with oil shock not yet in data, GDP at 0.7%, consumer sentiment 7th lowest in 40 years, Moody recession odds at 48.6%. Bond markets pricing in high inflation globally. ## Where to find the full content - HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/stagflation-lite-macro-signals-march-2026 - Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/stagflation-lite-macro-signals-march-2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown` - PDF deck (full analysis, charts, sources): https://tigzig.com/files/TREMOR_28MAR_BONDS.pdf ## Tags portfolio-quants --- ## Full analysis transcript (extracted from PDF deck) _This text was extracted from the source PowerPoint deck. Chart visuals (referenced as "no text content - see PNG at /files/...") are in the PDF and slide images on the HTML page._ ## Are we headed for Stagflation-Lite? 1 Bond yields have spiked 2 Consumer sentiment near 40 year lows 3 US Q4’25 GDP growth rate down to 0.7% 4 Inflation expectation rising 5 Oil, employment & delinquencies in a red zone 6 Equity markets in a micro-bear --- ## TREMOR –monitor early warning signals Built by analyst – for analysts Cockpit view of key macros + News Live at: [tremor.tigzig.com](https://tremor.tigzig.com/) Here’s what the TREMOR charts are telling us --- ## Bond markets pricing in high inflation expectation US Past 20 Years Past 6 Months US Treasuries 10Y Yield Germany 10Y Bund Yield Institutional and bond desk expecting higher inflation. Which make the current yields unattractive, causing sell-off and pushing yields higher. Becomes self fulfilling – the expectation itself create outcome in bond markets increasing risk to real economy [CNBC – Rising European Yields](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/european-bond-yields-inflation-rate-hikes.html), [Bloomberg Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCBEs3rrg5E) --- ## US Feb’26 PPI annual inflation at 3.4%, higher than expected US Past 20 Years The producer price index is a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products and an early indicator of consumer inflation. The annual inflation rate was at 3.4%, highest in past year. And the oil shock is yet to be baked in --- ## Consumer sentiments running abysmally low Michigan Consumer Sentiment results released March 27 came in at 53.3 amongst the lowest reading (7th lowest) in past 40 years --- ## US GDP growth rate revised to 0.7% The first revision of GDP on13th March 2026 was a 50% lower than the previous 1.4% and below Dow Jones consensus forecast of 1.5% [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-down-to-just-0point7percent-growth-january-core-inflation-was-3point1percent.html#:~:text=of%20Economic%20Analysis.-,The%20first%20revision%20of%20the%20GDP%20reading%20was%20a%20sharp,saw%20government%20spending%20tumble%2016.7%25.) (Seasonally & inflation adjusted Annualized QoQ growth rate) --- ## Oil, unemployment and delinquencies in red zone Brent continues to be above $100 and even when the Iran war ends and prices fall, the transmission won’t be instant. Some capacities may get online in months, others might take years. All while pressures continue on employment side and rising delinquencies. --- ## Economists raising odds of a recession Moody’s Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict.” In normal times, the risk for a recession in any given 12-month span is around 20%. So while the current predictions are hardly certainties, they signify elevated risk. “I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.” [Recession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.html) CNBC, March 25, 2026 --- ## Equity markets entering micro-bear territory Key equities dropped ~10% the past month from their recent highs --- ## Are we heading for a stagflation like scenario? Stagflation = High Inflation + Stagnant Growth Expectation of higher inflation + Expectation of lower growth + Continuing negative shocks = Higher probability of stagflation like scenario or 'Stagflation-Lite' --- ## Previous Analysis [Are we staring into face of a full bear market?](https://www.tigzig.com/post/tremor-macro-signals-march-2026)[US Banks & Non-Bank Lending - How Deep is the Exposure? Is there a Systemic Risk?](https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-banks-ndfc-lending-systemic-risk-2026)[Structural Weakness Intensifying](https://www.tigzig.com/post/structural-weakness-intensifying-march-2026)[Private Credit - The $2.7 Trillion Shadow Lending Market Is Showing Cracks](https://www.tigzig.com/post/private-credit-shadow-lending-cracks-2026)