# Structural Weakness Intensifying Published: 2026-03-20 3 major US macro data points in 3 days all pointing the same direction. Feb payrolls minus 92K against expectations of 59K rise. PPI Core at 3.87%. Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. Brent crude nearly doubled in 3 months. Delinquencies past COVID highs. Multiple macro signals flashing stress simultaneously. ## Where to find the full content - HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/structural-weakness-intensifying-march-2026 - Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/structural-weakness-intensifying-march-2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown` - PDF deck (full analysis, charts, sources): https://tigzig.com/files/TREMOR_MAR_2026_20MAR.pdf ## Tags portfolio-quants --- ## Full analysis transcript (extracted from PDF deck) _This text was extracted from the source PowerPoint deck. Chart visuals (referenced as "no text content - see PNG at /files/...") are in the PDF and slide images on the HTML page._ ## You don’t know who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out. - Buffet Ghosts of 2008 Is Private Credit going to be the straw that broke the Camel’s back --- ## What is Private Credit & Direct Lending 2025E Private Lending ~2.7T & direct lending ~1.4T Direct Lending > 50% of all private credit [Evolution of Direct Lending - Morgan Stanley – 2026](https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/article/article_evolutionofdirectlending.pdf?1774345169325)[Private credit investments: 'Some caution is reasonable,' advisor says](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/22/private-credit.html) Private credit is lending outside the traditional banking system - private lenders originate loans directly with borrowers Post-2008, banks retreated from lending to smaller firms. Direct lending filled that gap for middle market companies Banks are still exposed - they fund private lenders (BDCs) Retail/HNW investors exposed via BDCs, new private credit ETFs & Pension fund investments --- ## “A significant private credit shakeout on par with Covid losses is coming” – Morgan Stanley [Private credit shakeout matching Covid losses coming, Morgan Stanley says](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/private-credit-shakeout-matching-covid-losses-coming-morgan-stanley-says.html)[Evolution of Direct Lending - Morgan Stanley - 2026](https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/article/article_evolutionofdirectlending.pdf?1774345169325) “In our view, AI disruption will be a meaningful catalyst to drive defaults higher in direct lending… Overall, we expect the direct lending default rates to reach 8%, approaching Covid peak levels” - strategist Morgan Stanley Joyce Jiang (as reported by CNBC) Premise: New technology & AI ➜ erode demand for software services ➜ hurt lenders Morgan Stanley estimates that ~26% of direct lender portfolios (BDCs) and ~19% of private credit CLOs are exposed to software - a sector highly vulnerable to AI disruption --- ## Investors in private credit demanding their money back [Blackstone's flagship private credit fund posts first monthly loss in over three years | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/blackstones-flagship-private-credit-fund-posts-first-monthly-loss-over-three-2026-03-20/)[Why Wall Street is calling out ‘echoes’ of the 2008 financial crisis | CNN Business](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap)[After pouring billions into private credit, many investors want out](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/private-credit-blackstone-blue-owl-kkr-carlyle-retail-wealth-investors-liquid.html) Blackstone, the private equity giant: $3.8 billion in redemption requests. At least 25 senior leaders from across the firm pitched in some $150 million from their own wallets . BCRED, Blackstones flagship private credit fund posted its first monthly loss of 0.4% in ​more than three years in February, it’s first since September 2022 ,when it posted a loss of 1.3%. Blue Owl - hit with withdrawal requests. Halts redemptions and liquidates assets to repay. --- ## “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more… Everyone should be forewarned on this” Jamie Dimon [Why Jamie Dimon is warning of ‘cockroaches’ in the US economy | CNN Business](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/16/business/jamie-dimon-us-economy-cockroaches) Beyond software, the other stress point is subprime auto lending. In 2008 it was toxic mortgages - today the red flag is car loans Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lender) went bust Sep 2025. Even JPMorgan took a $170M hit from this single bankruptcy First Brands (auto-parts) filed Chapter 11 with ~$2.3B in hidden loans. DOJ opened a criminal probe - echoes of Lehman Dimon’s point: these may be isolated, but in a downturn more will surface - “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” Are Car Loans the next ‘toxic mortgages’ --- ## Structural weaknesses intensifying ↓ Non Farm Payroll 2-yr downtrend ↑ Jobless Rate Creeping up ↑ Brent Crude Nearly 2x ↑ PPI Core 15-yr high ↑ PPI Overall Oil shock pending ↓ Retail Sales Declining ↑ 30+ DPD Delinquency Past COVID highs ↓ Yield Curve Falling ↓ Equity Markets 5-10% off highs --- ## Unemployment creeping up steadily the past 2 years Past 20 Years --- ## Brent moving towards 2008 territory Nearly doubled in past 3 months – supply shock as strait of Hormuz remains closed Past 25 Years --- ## US 30+ DPD has already crossed the COVID highs Past 20 Years --- ## Markets are already pricing in the weakness S&P 500 is down ~5% from its Jan 2026 high Nifty 50 is down ~10% from its Jan 2026 high DAX is down ~8% from its Jan 2026 high --- ## No predictions. Just data. Tracked daily [tremor.tigzig.com](https://tremor.tigzig.com/) 10 Signals – all pointing in same direction