# Tremor - Macro Early Warning Signals - March 2026 Published: 2026-03-14 S&P down 5%, Nifty in bear territory down 12% from highs. CAPE at 40-year highs, gold going vertical, crude shooting towards 2008 levels, US delinquencies crossing COVID highs. When macro signals move together - tremors before a quake. 12 chart slides from tremor.tigzig.com. ## Where to find the full content - HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/tremor-macro-signals-march-2026 - Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/tremor-macro-signals-march-2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown` - PDF deck (full analysis, charts, sources): https://tigzig.com/files/TREMOR_MAR_2026.pdf ## Tags portfolio-quants --- ## Full analysis transcript (extracted from PDF deck) _This text was extracted from the source PowerPoint deck. Chart visuals (referenced as "no text content - see PNG at /files/...") are in the PDF and slide images on the HTML page._ ## Where are we headed Bond yields spiking Consumer sentiment at one of lowest in past 20 years Oil Remains high US Q425 GDP growth revised downwards to 0.7% US Unemployment & Non-Farm Payrolls flashing red --- ## Bond markets pricing in high inflation expectation US Past 20 Years Past 6 Months US Treasuries 10Y Yield Germany 10Y Bund Yield Institutional and bond desk expecting higher inflation. Which make the current yields unattractive, causing sell-off and consequential rise in yields. Becomes self fulfilling – the expectation itself create outcome in bond markets increasing risk to real economy [CNBC – Rising European Yields](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/european-bond-yields-inflation-rate-hikes.html), [Bloomberg Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCBEs3rrg5E) --- ## US Feb’26 PPI annual inflation at 3.4%, higher than expected US Past 20 Years The producer price index is a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products and an early indicator of consumer inflation. The annual inflation rate was at 3.4%, highest in past year. And the oil shock is yet to be baked in --- ## Consumer sentiments running abysmally low Michigan Consumer Sentiment results released March 27 came in at 53.3 amongst the lowest reading (7th lowest) in past 20 years --- ## US GDP growth rate revised to 0.7% The first revision of GDP on13th March 2026 was a 50% lower than the previous 1.4% and below Dow Jones consensus forecast of 1.5% [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-down-to-just-0point7percent-growth-january-core-inflation-was-3point1percent.html#:~:text=of%20Economic%20Analysis.-,The%20first%20revision%20of%20the%20GDP%20reading%20was%20a%20sharp,saw%20government%20spending%20tumble%2016.7%25.) (Seasonally & inflation adjusted Annualized QoQ growth rate) --- ## Oil, unemployment and delinquencies in red zone Brent continues to be above $100 and even when the Iran war ends and prices fall, the transmission won’t be instant. Some capacities may get online in months, others might take years. All while pressures continue on employment side and rising delinquencies. --- ## Economists raising odds of a recession Moody’s Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict.” In normal times, the risk for a recession in any given 12-month span is around 20%. So while the current predictions are hardly certainties, they signify elevated risk. “I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.” Reports [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.html) March 25, 2026 --- ## US Shiller CAPE (Warren Buffett Indicator) is at its 2nd highest level ever and inching towards the highest seen during the dot com bubble --- ## Gold touching new highs and orbiting the outer world Past 20 Years --- ## Crude nearly doubled since December and rapidly going towards 20 year high touched last time in 2008 --- ## US advance retail sales growth is on downward trajectory --- ## US 30+ DPD has already crossed the COVID highs Past 20 Years --- ## US Unemployment creeping up steadily the past 2 years Past 20 Years --- ## US 10Y-2Y treasury spreads are coming off its highs --- ## As many forecasts as there are expert. But mine is always 100% correct.Market goes up, down, or sideways.I don't trade actively anymore.But the trader's mindset stays.Have a setup ready for each An Entry. An Exit. A Stop loss.