# Are auto loans the next subprime mortgage? Is there an auto loan crisis in 2026?

The parallel is real but not identical. US auto loans are **$1.67 trillion** outstanding - about **5.4% of GDP** - and the stress signals are at crisis-era levels: NY Fed **90+ day delinquencies hit 5.21%**, back at **GFC-peak** levels; **bank auto net charge-offs are ~2x** their 2011 baseline; and **credit-union auto charge-offs are at record highs**. On top, roughly **$3.1B of fraud surfaced in one month** (Sept 2025): Tricolor's ~$800M phantom collateral and First Brands' ~$2.3B of off-book receivables.

Where it differs from 2007: scale. Auto plus its ABS is **~6.5% of GDP** versus **~8.3% for 2007 subprime mortgages**, and this is prime-book stress without a single GFC-style trigger. Direct holders: banks $536B, credit unions $484B, non-bank finance companies $485B. The honest read from the analysis: auto alone will not break the system - loss reserves can absorb it - but **multiple stresses running at once** (private credit, consumer cards, CRE) is what turns manageable into systemic.

Full analysis with charts and sources: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/auto-loans-crisis-2026-subprime-parallel](https://www.tigzig.com/post/auto-loans-crisis-2026-subprime-parallel). Track the live delinquency and charge-off data (FDIC, NCUA, NY Fed): [https://www.tigzig.com/tremor](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor). Related: are consumer delinquencies at crisis levels [https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-us-consumer-credit-delinquencies-at-crisis-levels](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-us-consumer-credit-delinquencies-at-crisis-levels).

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Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-auto-loans-the-next-subprime-crisis
Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar.
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