# Are central banks (the BIS) warning about an AI bubble?

Yes. The Bank for International Settlements (the BIS, owned by 63 central banks) used its June 2026 Annual Economic Report to red-flag the AI boom, charting it alongside canal mania, railway mania, the roaring 20s and the dotcom bubble - each of which drew "capital in excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify" and ended in economy-wide recessions.

The BIS listed six red flags: $1trn+ hyperscaler AI capex outpacing free cash flow (part debt-funded); circular financing with "the same asset being pledged multiple times"; valuations pricing growth beyond anything these firms have delivered; a modelled bust in its adverse scenario; direct lenders quadrupling AI/IT lending to ~15% of their books; and an automation "demand bottleneck" where each displaced worker is a lost consumer.

Full read with the BIS charts: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/bis-ai-boom-red-flag-central-banks-jun2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/bis-ai-boom-red-flag-central-banks-jun2026). Related: whether the S&P 500 itself is in a bubble - [https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-the-us-stock-market-in-a-bubble](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-the-us-stock-market-in-a-bubble). Live macro stress data: [https://www.tigzig.com/tremor](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor).

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Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-central-banks-warning-ai-bubble
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