# Is copper another bubble after silver and gold?

**Possibly, and the case rests more on policy and stockpiling than on demand.** Copper closed at **$13,751 a tonne on 6 November 2026**, below its September record, after silver's 55% fall and gold's 25% fall. ING wrote on 10 September that the move towards $15,000 a tonne **"had run ahead of current fundamentals"**.

**Near balance in tonnes.** The International Copper Study Group sees a 2026 surplus of 104,000 tonnes and 368,000 in 2027. Macquarie sees surpluses averaging over 700,000 tonnes a year to 2030 and says prices "have disconnected from the fundamentals". BMO and BMI see deficits from 2027.

**AI is small in tonnes.** S&P Global puts data-centre use at 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, which is about 4% of world demand by Amar Harolikar's arithmetic. On S&P's path it grows by about 0.09 million tonnes a year, against about 0.9 million for all demand.

**The stockpile is the larger number.** Traders pulled metal into US warehouses ahead of a possible duty on refined copper. BMO puts the hoard near 2 million tonnes, about a year of US use, which is an estimate. The World Bank says the rally partly reflects mining disruptions, and that the US inflow tightened supply elsewhere and lifted London. BMO reads it differently: $14,500 to $15,000 a tonne is "fundamentally supported", because the metal moved from hidden to visible stocks. Macquarie rates a decision against the duty the least likely outcome, but says it would most likely collapse the CME price and take the LME price with it. The duty could start on 1 January 2027 at the earliest.

**The tariff markup is almost gone.** COMEX is the US price and LME is London's. COMEX traded $2,964 a tonne above LME on 25 July 2025, 30% higher. On 6 November the two were about level. Since January 2025 COMEX is up 55% and LME is up 56%, so the rise is in the global price.

**Funds built up, then cut.** From the end of 2024 to the 22 September peak, funds' net long in COMEX copper rose by about 87,000 contracts, about 1 million tonnes of exposure, mostly from shorts closing, per CFTC managed-money data. At the peak it was higher than in 96% of the weeks since 2010. Since then it has fallen 58% to about 35,000 contracts, the 2025 average.

**Against past peaks.** In today's dollars the record is within about 3% of the 2011 peak and 7% of the 2006 peak. The 2011 peak fell 58% and took 10.2 years to recover.

**The other side.** Copper is cheap against gold: 652 pounds of copper per ounce of gold, against a median of 477 since 2011. Outside the US, visible stocks are down 168,000 tonnes this year, per Mining.com on 14 October. BMO calls $14,500 to $15,000 fundamentally supported, and fund net long is back at its 2025 average.

Analysis of public sources, for information only. Not investment advice. Full post with the one-pager and every source: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/copper-bubble-after-silver-gold-nov2026](https://www.tigzig.com/post/copper-bubble-after-silver-gold-nov2026). Related: [why silver is down 56% from its peak](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/why-is-silver-down-56-percent-from-its-peak), [why gold is falling](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/why-is-gold-falling-and-has-4000-held) and [is the US stock market in a bubble?](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-the-us-stock-market-in-a-bubble) Live copper futures, free and with no key: [api.tigzig.com/v1/series?ids=HG=F](https://api.tigzig.com/v1/series?ids=HG=F) (dollars a pound).

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Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-copper-another-bubble-after-silver-and-gold
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