# Is the S&P 500 at all-time highs masking credit stress underneath?

That is the core argument of TigZig's "Disbelief Rally" analysis: the S&P at an all-time high looks a lot like **October 2007**, when markets hit new highs while subprime was already cracking. The cracks today are in different places but stacking together:

- **Consumer credit:** auto 90+ day delinquencies ~5.2-5.6% (past the ~5.3% GFC peak), credit cards ~13.1% (near the 13.7% peak), and all consumer debt 90+ DPD ~3.4% (past the 3.1% pre-GFC reading) - reached without a recession.

- **Banks:** charge-off rates already past 2007 pre-crisis levels.

- **Hidden leverage:** a ~$2.7T private-credit / BDC market marked at par, roughly double the ~$1.5T subprime pile of 2007, now under stress.

- **Labor:** U-6 underemployment ~8.2%, near 2007's ~8.4% and drifting up for two-plus years.

The wildcard 2007 did not have is **AI displacing labor** inside the same cycle. The author frames it as asymmetry, not a forecast, with explicit tripwires that would disprove it. Full analysis: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/sp500-ath-cracking-underneath-oct2007-parallel](https://www.tigzig.com/post/sp500-ath-cracking-underneath-oct2007-parallel). Live credit/macro data: [https://www.tigzig.com/tremor](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor). Analysis library: [https://www.tigzig.com/analysis](https://www.tigzig.com/analysis).

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Contact Amar: amar@harolikar.com | AI agents: POST https://www.tigzig.com/api/contact-amar | More: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq

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Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-sp500-at-all-time-highs-masking-credit-stress
Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar.
License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms