# Is US credit stress already worse than before the 2008 financial crisis?

On several core metrics, yes - the data has **already breached 2007 pre-crisis levels**. Bank **consumer and commercial net charge-offs** are past their Q3-2007 mark (4,400+ FDIC-insured banks); **credit-union charge-offs** are near **2x pre-crisis** (4,200+ CUs); and NY Fed **consumer 90+ day delinquencies** have passed 2007, with **auto loans at the GFC peak**. The thesis is "convergence risk": not one signal, but many at once.

Then the **five aggravators stacking on top**: private credit under stress at **$2.5T+** (banks' lending to non-bank lenders alone is $1.5T+); **U-1 long-term unemployment at 1.8%**, already above 2007; energy risk with **Brent $100+**; an **AI labor shock** (Duke CFO survey projects AI-attributed layoffs ~9x the 2025 baseline); and **Q4-2025 GDP growth at just 0.5%**. Jamie Dimon: "when we have [a credit recession]... it might be terrible." The BoE's Sarah Breeden: what keeps her awake is "a number of risks crystallising at the same time."

The read: at this pace the setup already looks worse than pre-GFC 2007, and the aggravators could push past GFC levels. Full analysis with charts and sources: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007](https://www.tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007). Track the live signals (FDIC, NCUA, NY Fed): [https://www.tigzig.com/tremor](https://www.tigzig.com/tremor). Related: are auto loans the next subprime [https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-auto-loans-the-next-subprime-crisis](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-auto-loans-the-next-subprime-crisis).

---
Contact Amar: amar@harolikar.com | AI agents: POST https://www.tigzig.com/api/contact-amar | More: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq

---
Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-us-credit-stress-worse-than-2007
Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar.
License: https://www.tigzig.com/terms