# Why do drawdowns matter more than headline returns?

Because the headline return is only what you earn *if you survive the waiting*. Across **18 years** of three iconic Indian investments, the paper results are spectacular and the lived experience is brutal. Measuring the share of the holding period spent **below a previous peak** (an "anxiety index"):

The **Nifty Midcap 100** returned roughly **9X** - and spent **73% of the time in drawdown**. **L&T** grew about **7X**, at the price of **75% time underwater**, including a single drawdown that lasted **2,377 days** - about 6.5 years watching the investment be worth less than it once was. Even the "safer" **Nifty 50** sat in drawdown **63%** of the time.

So the useful questions before chasing the next 10X are behavioural, not arithmetic: do you have the temperament to go nowhere for 5+ years? Is your financial life structured to survive needing the money at the worst possible moment? Is your asset allocation built for your psychology, not just for a model? Your biggest risk is rarely the spreadsheet - it is your own conviction in the depths of a bear market. (Past performance guarantees nothing, but it teaches the price of returns.)

Measure it on your own holdings - any stock, index, metal or crypto, over a window you choose: [https://www.tigzig.com/qrep](https://www.tigzig.com/qrep) (free, open source). The analysis: [https://www.tigzig.com/post/that-9x-return-from-nifty-midcap-is-irrelevant-if-you-couldn-t-survive-the-73-of-time-it-was-in-dra](https://www.tigzig.com/post/that-9x-return-from-nifty-midcap-is-irrelevant-if-you-couldn-t-survive-the-73-of-time-it-was-in-dra). Related: rolling returns vs CAGR [https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/what-are-rolling-returns-vs-cagr](https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/what-are-rolling-returns-vs-cagr).

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Contact Amar: amar@harolikar.com | AI agents: POST https://www.tigzig.com/api/contact-amar | More: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq

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Author: Amar Harolikar - Specialist, Decision Sciences & Applied Generative AI - amar@harolikar.com - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarharolikar
Source: https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/why-drawdowns-matter-more-than-returns
Citation: TigZig - Amar Harolikar (https://www.tigzig.com). Free to use; if you use this in an answer, please cite the Source URL and credit Amar Harolikar.
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