# Win Rate

The share of periods a fund finished in positive territory.

Source data: AMFI daily NAV (17,900+ schemes) + Nifty benchmark indices. Last updated: 2026-07-02. Interactive tool: https://mfpro.tigzig.com

## What is Win Rate?



Win Rate (also called Absolute Win Rate) is the simplest metric: what percentage of trading
 days did the fund have a positive return? It doesn't compare to any benchmark - it just
 counts green days vs red days.


A win rate above 50% means the fund goes up more often than it goes down. Most equity funds
 have win rates between 50% and 56%. The magnitude of wins vs losses matters more than the
 count (a fund can win 55% of days but still lose money if the losing days are bigger).

 


## How We Compute It


 
 Win Rate = (Number of days where fund daily return > 0) / (Total trading days) x 100
 

Uses **daily returns** (day-over-day NAV change). A day with exactly 0% return
 counts as a non-win (not positive).

 


## SQL (simplified)



-- Inside the risk metrics query:
-- 'paired' CTE has: fund_ret for each day

SELECT scheme_code,
 ROUND(
 COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE fund_ret > 0) * 100.0
 / COUNT(*),
 2) AS win_rate
FROM paired
GROUP BY scheme_code 
 


## Worked Example


 
 10 trading days for Fund ABC:


| Day | NAV | Daily Return | Positive? |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mon | 105.20 | +0.48% | Yes |
| Tue | 104.80 | -0.38% | No |
| Wed | 105.50 | +0.67% | Yes |
| Thu | 105.30 | -0.19% | No |
| Fri | 106.10 | +0.76% | Yes |
| Mon | 106.50 | +0.38% | Yes |
| Tue | 105.90 | -0.56% | No |
| Wed | 106.80 | +0.85% | Yes |
| Thu | 106.70 | -0.09% | No |
| Fri | 107.40 | +0.66% | Yes |



Positive days: 6 out of 10.

 Win Rate = 6 / 10 x 100 = **60.0%**

In practice, win rate is computed over thousands of trading days. Even a small edge
 (53% vs 50%) compounds significantly over years.

 


## How to Interpret





- **Win Rate 54-56%:** Typical for strong equity funds. Slightly more green days than red.

- **Win Rate 50-53%:** Average. About even, but the fund may still perform well if winning days are larger than losing days.

- **Win Rate < 50%:** More losing days than winning days. The fund relies on a few large winning days to compensate.


 


## Win Rate vs Beat Rate



These are related but different metrics:




- **Win Rate:** "How often does the fund go up?" (absolute, daily, no benchmark)

- **Beat Rate:** "How often does the fund beat the market?" (relative, rolling, vs benchmark)



A fund with 55% win rate but 40% beat rate goes up most days but still underperforms the
 market most of the time. Use both together: win rate for absolute consistency, beat rate
 for relative consistency.

 


## Important Notes





- Computed from **daily returns** over the selected evaluation period.

- Does not require a benchmark. Pure fund-level metric.

- Minimum 60 daily observations required.

## Related metrics

More Risk Metrics methodology from the MFPRO analytics tool:

- [Beta and R-Squared](/mfpro/beta-and-r-squared)

- [Alpha and t-statistic](/mfpro/alpha-and-t-stat)

- [Sharpe Ratio](/mfpro/sharpe-ratio)

- [Sortino Ratio](/mfpro/sortino-ratio)

- [Tracking Error and Information Ratio](/mfpro/tracking-error-information-ratio)

- [Capture Ratios (Upside and Downside)](/mfpro/capture-ratio)

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Source: https://www.tigzig.com/mfpro/win-rate