The Convergence Risk. Credit Stress Already Past 2007 Pre-Crisis. Five Aggravators Stacking On Top.
Published: April 29, 2026
Multiple credit stress signals at the same time across US banks, credit unions and consumer debt. Past 2007 pre-crisis on most metrics. Auto loans already at GFC peak. And five aggravating factors are stacking on top.
Aggravators on top - AI labor shock, U-1 unemployment above 2007, GDP at 0.5%, energy supply risk with Brent $100+, private credit stress with $2.5T+ exposure and $1.5T+ bank lending to non-bank lenders.
Two warnings worth noting. Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) - "...credit recession might be terrible". Sarah Breeden, Bank of England - "...likelihood of a number risks crystallising at the same time".
7 charts. 5 aggravating factors. 2 warnings.
The setup is already worse than pre-GFC 2007. With aggravators stacked on top, we could exceed GFC levels itself.
Analysis in the deck.
Data on TREMOR - tremor.tigzig.com
Full Deck Content (Text Format)
Text below was extracted from the source deck. Chart visuals stay in the PDF and as slide images above the post.
Delinquencies and losses past pre GFC levels
Some sectors at GFC peaks
US Lending Crisis
Amar Harolikar
Decision Sciences & Applied AISpecialist – Banking Analytics
29th April 2026
35%+ of Total Loans*
The Convergence Risk Across Consumer
& Commercial Banking
*Consumer + C&I as % of total loans for Banks & Credit Unions
BANKS
Consumer and commercial net charge-offs on rising trend and breached 2007 pre-crisis level (Q3-2007)
Source: FDIC SDI via tremor.tigzig.com
4400+ FDIC Insured Banks
CREDIT UNIONS
Net charge-offs across all loans touching 2X of pre-crisis levels (Q3-2007). Consumer the worst
Source: NCUA Quarterly Aggregate FPR via tremor.tigzig.com
4200+ Federally Insured CUs
NY FED CONSUMER
Consumer 90+ DPD including charge-offs breached 2007 pre crisis. Auto loans at GFC peak.
Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax via Tigzig Tremor platform
PRIVATECREDIT
$2.5T+
Private credit under stress. Bank lending to non bank lenders more than $1.5T
LABOR MARKET
1.8%
U-1 long-term unemployed already above 2007
ENERGY
$100+
Geopolitical supply risk elevated. Brent $100+. Normalization takes months.
AI LABOR SHOCK
9X
Duke CFO Survey projects AI-attributed layoffs 9x 2025 baseline
GDP
0.5%
US Q4’25 GDP growth rate down to 0.5%
Convergence risk - multiple shocks at same time
Warnings
Jamie Dimon, CEO JPMorgan Chase
"We haven't had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think. It might be terrible."
Jamie Dimon warns of 'bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build, CNBC, Apr 28, 2026
Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor, Bank of England (Financial Stability)
"There's a lot of risk out there and yet asset prices are at all-time highs. We expect there will be an adjustment at some point…The thing that really keeps me awake at night is the likelihood of a number of risks crystallising at the same time - a major macroeconomic shock, confidence in private credit goes, AI and other risky valuations readjust - what happens in that environment and are we prepared for it?"
Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy, BBC News, Apr 24,2026
At this pace, the setup is worse than pre-GFC 2007. Add the aggravating factors and we could exceed GFC levels
Data & Tools
Primary Data Sources
NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax
FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions
NCUA Quarterly Aggregate FPR
TREMOR - tremor.tigzig.com
Early Warning Macro Signals
Charts & Analytics