The headline looks strong but real volume is flat. May 2026 US retail sales set a record at $763.7bn (+6.9% YoY), but strip out inflation and real goods spending has not grown in five years - of that $763.7bn, only about $605.9bn is real 2021 goods; the other ~$157.8bn is pure inflation.
Households are holding the line by stretching: the personal saving rate is back to pre-2008 lows, NY Fed HELOC balances are up 40% since 2021, University of Michigan sentiment collapsed to 44.8 (near the lowest on record), and 90+ day delinquencies on all consumer debt are back to 3.4%, past the 2007 mark. Real GDP still grows ~2% on services, AI investment and government, so this is a squeeze on the household goods budget, not an economy-wide downturn.
Every series is live on https://www.tigzig.com/tremor (retail RSAFS/RRSFS, saving rate, HELOC, delinquencies, sentiment). Full analysis: https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-consumer-squeeze-real-retail-jun2026. Related: are consumer credit delinquencies at crisis levels - https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-us-consumer-credit-delinquencies-at-crisis-levels.
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