Analysis
30
Auto Losses Past the GFC Peak. Cards Almost There. Credit Unions Already at GFC Loss Rates. NY Fed + NCUA Data Now on Tigzig.
NY Fed and NCUA aggregate loss / delinquency data comes out as a spreadsheet - pain to analyze. Pulled, disaggregated by quarter, validated and loaded into a database with an interface (tigzig.com -> TREMOR), an API (api.tigzig.com) and an MCP layer (mcp.tigzig.com). Quarterly coverage, by loan type, ~44 quarters, sourced from the regulators' own spreadsheets. And the data is talking loudly. Bank charge-offs look fine on the surface but the pressure is one step away from the banks: auto losses past the GFC peak, cards almost there. Credit unions running loss rates last seen during the GFC period - overall, consumer and cards; the card book has already pushed past its 2009 peak. And banks keep funding non-bank lenders - $1.65T to non-banks in Q1, up 42% in five quarters.
Private Credit and BDC Stress. Discounts at 13-Year Lows. Withdrawals Past the Gate. Regulators Now Arriving.
The median listed BDC trades at 25% discount to NAV, near its deepest in 13 years excluding Covid - 0.75x price to book today. Pimco's CIO: 'the first sustained default or loss cycle in many, many years.' Q1 losses: FS KKR $441M, Blue Owl's BDC $184M. Withdrawal requests blew past the 5% redemption gate at Blackstone's BCRED (~10%) and Cliffwater (17%) - a first-ever net outflow. Private-credit rating downgrades up 50% in a year. UBS sees defaults rising from ~4.4% to 9-10% by end-2026. US issuance fell ~40% vs Q1 to $44.8B in the 3 months to May. Partners Group warns the redemption pressure that began in private credit is now spreading into private equity. The regulators have started arriving: federal prosecutors in NY questioning BlackRock executives over how their credit fund valued loans; FSB flags private credit's leverage and interconnections as a source of broader risks to financial stability; ECB puts US private credit on its watchlist as a spillover risk into Europe; Sarah Breeden at the Bank of England calls it a potential 'market for lemons' (Akerlof). Companion update to the prior 'Is Private Credit Turning Into a Lemon' analysis.
Hormuz Is Quietly Opening. The First Good News in 100 Days. And It Is Running in Two Lanes.
A trickle of tankers is getting out of the Strait of Hormuz again - the first real relief after more than three months of a shut chokepoint. But how they are getting out is the interesting bit. There is not one quiet arrangement, there are two. One lane Iran controls and charges a toll for, close to the Iranian coast (most traffic this way - CSIS says half the vessels since early March are from just four countries with China at the top). One lane the US Navy quietly watches over near the Oman coast - mines cleared, ~70 ships guided through in three weeks per New York Times sources; officially the US says it is not escorting, just coordinating. Tankers go dark on both sides - on Iran's lane to stay off the Western sanctions record, on the US lane to not broadcast their position to Iran. Use Iran's lane and you risk US sanctions; use the US lane and you risk an Iranian attack. Per Kpler, of the ~895 ships that crossed early March to mid-May, just over half took Iran's route and about 40% went by a route nobody can quite place - that 40% is the story. Producers shut in ~11 mbd; Energy Aspects: oil flow recovery will be slow, uneven and possibly incomplete. Gulf producers are even building pipelines to go around Hormuz. The US-Iran interim memo (30-60 days) is in the final stretch, leaving the strait basically under Iranian control however the fees end up dressed. Opening, yes - real. Solved, no.
Bank Loss Rates Look Calm. The Stuff Underneath - Consumer, Private Credit, Non-Banks - Says Otherwise.
US bank net charge-offs at 0.58% in Q1 2026 - right at pre-GFC, miles under the GFC peak, so the headline number looks calm. But pull the consumer book out and consumer NCO is already running hotter than pre-GFC at 2.9% vs 2.5% in 2007 - cards highest, auto rising. The sharpest stress sits off the bank books: most private credit losses are marked-to-market and hit P&L directly, never showing as a charge-off. Credit unions and non-bank consumer lenders carry the weakest paper, which loops back to banks via their non-bank and private credit lines. The macro is weak across unemployment, savings rate, producer inflation, oil and gas - all moving the wrong way. The bank NCO looks calm; the stuff it can't show (consumer cards, private credit mark-to-market, non-bank consumer lenders) says otherwise. Analysis supported by TIGZIG TREMOR self-serve analytics tool covering FDIC, NY Fed, NCUA and private-credit series.
ECB Stress-Tested Private Credit. Pensions Worst at 6% of Assets. Almost All the Damage Is the Wider Market Crash It Sets Off.
The ECB just ran a three-stage stress test on private credit, part of the May 2026 Financial Stability Review special feature. Stage 1: direct private credit losses. Stage 2: contagion to leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Stage 3: tail scenario (equities -30%, HY repriced -25%, money runs out of private credit funds). Almost all the simulated damage is Stage 3 - the wider market crash the scare sets off, not the loans themselves. Severe-scenario losses: insurance corporations ~4% of assets, pension funds ~6% (the worst-hit), banks barely move. Euro area's direct private credit exposure is tiny (insurers 2.3%, banks 0.2%), but the US owns multiples more - insurers ~10% (15%+ for PE-owned), banks ~1.3-7%, with $300B in private credit and $1.65T in broader non-bank lending. Author commentary: contagion is bigger than the asset (as in prior crises), and given simultaneous global pressures plus the dot-com / GFC playbook, this should not be treated as 'just tail risk' (GFC 2008 was supposed to be tail risk too, until Lehman). ECB report: 'Stress in global private credit markets and its implications for euro area financial stability.'
FSB Just Published 50 Pages on Private Credit. The Title: 'Vulnerabilities in Private Credit.' Worth Reading.
The Financial Stability Board's 6 May 2026 report 'Vulnerabilities in Private Credit' - 50 pages. The body that coordinates the Fed, ECB, BoE and the world's other financial regulators putting on the record what they're collectively worried about - layered leverage, opaque valuations, PE-owned insurers, interconnections and instrument risks that aren't fully understood, with a potential for systemic risk to the financial system in stress scenarios. One-pager highlights: market sizing $1.5-2T narrow estimate (full market can't be sized); multiple layers of leverage stacked on top of each other; US insurance liabilities run by PE-backed insurers grown from $67B to $900B. FSB quote: 'interconnections between private credit funds and banks, insurers, and private equity firms are deepening, raising potential vulnerabilities... investors and other stakeholders may only have partial information and understanding of correlations and concentrations... the sector's complexity, leverage, and interconnectedness could amplify stress in adverse scenarios, posing broader risks to financial stability.' Continues the Tigzig private-credit dispatch series (4 prior pieces).
India Was the Market's Darling. Not Any More. The Growth Story Has a Big Red Flag.
13-slide deep dive on the India macro red-flag stack as of May 2026. GDP forecast trims across the board - Moody's FY27 at 6% (the low-end call), S&P 6.6% (from 7.1%), ICRA 6.2% (from 6.5%). IT sector silent layoffs - TCS ~12,000 cut, ~50,000 IT jobs going this year, ~500,000 at risk over 2-3 years, with the model itself being questioned as AI replaces offshore engineering work. Foreign portfolio investors net seller (FY26 net exit, BofA expecting selloff into 2027/2028); FDI anchor held at +$7.7B. Wholesale Price Index at a 13-year high (ex-Covid spike); the WPI-CPI lag means retail catch-up is the base case. Record merchandise trade deficit of -$333B (FY26) on flat exports (+0.9%) and rising imports (+7.6%); China overtakes US as India's largest trading partner. Oil shock still playing out - four fuel hikes in two weeks, Delhi petrol Rs 102, OMC losses ~Rs 30,000 crore/month per ICRA. IMD El Niño monsoon forecast at 90% of LPA - driest in 11 years - which none of the GDP downgrades have priced in. Bankers warning publicly (Uday Kotak at CII: 'it's coming, and it's coming big'); PM appealing for fuel austerity. For India, anything below 4-5% GDP growth is recession territory. Any one is manageable. All of them at once is the problem. Silver lining: the India AI data-centre buildout (Adani, Reliance, Bharti) - covered in the prior India's Next Tech Wave dispatch.
Which Chart Is the Odd One Out? Three Macro Charts Tell the Same Story. One Doesn't.
Four-chart US macro one-pager (May 2026) asking the spot-the-odd-one-out question. Three charts show rising stress - U-6 underemployment at 8.2% (climbing since 2023, up from 6.7% Jan 2023 and past 8.7% Peak 2025), personal saving rate down to 2.6% (from 6.4% peak 2024 and 4.9% Jan 2023, the cushion is nearly gone), consumer 90 DPD loss rate at 3.4% (past the pre-GFC 3.06% reference, worst at credit unions and non-bank lenders). The fourth chart: S&P 500 at a record 7,580, up 86% over the three-year window. Three macro-stress charts in one direction; the index chart in the other. Tools that drive this kind of comparison are on tigzig.com - free, no login, 300+ series covering macros, prices, savings, labor and delinquencies, available via web interface, API or MCP for AI agents.
Banks Keep Funding the Non-Banks. $1.65T in Q1 2026, Up 42% in Five Quarters. US Banks NDFI Update.
Q1 2026 update on US bank lending to non-depository financial institutions (NDFI) - the channel funding private credit. Balances hit $1.65T, up 42% in five quarters and now 14.2% of the entire bank loan book (up from 11.1%) or 7.1% of total assets (up from 5.6%). 622 banks. Top 10 hold 73% of all NDFI loans. Subcategory mix: Business Credit $435B (26%), PE Funds $383B (23%), Mortgage Credit $368B (22%), Other NDFIs $269B (16%), Consumer Credit $166B (10%). Top lenders: JPMorgan $238B, Wells Fargo $228B, Bank of America $213B, Goldman $123B, Citi $123B. Add undrawn commitments of $1.06T and total exposure hits $2.7T. The Fed, FSB, OCC, IMF, ECB, BoE and DOJ all flagging it; Fitch private-credit default rate at a record 6.0%; Bank of England calling it a 'market for lemons'. Tool live at tigzig.com/tools/us-ndfi (TREMOR) with bank-level balances, commitments, credit quality and exposure - free, no login, sourced directly from quarterly FFIEC Call Reports (Schedule RC-C). Continues the four-dispatch private-credit series (Mar 24, Mar 26, May 8, May 28).
Banks Holding the Line.. But the 'Lemons' Sit Off the Chart. In Private Credit, Credit Unions, and Non-Bank Consumer Lenders.
FDIC Q1 2026 NCO chart shows US banks holding the line at 0.58%, right at pre-GFC. Real Estate (45% of book) at 0.05% vs 2.50% GFC peak. Consumer at 2.87% (vs 6.64% GFC). C&I 0.52% (vs 2.69%). But the credit stress is in two places the bank NCO chart doesn't show. First: private credit, which is mark-to-market and hits P&L directly, never flowing through to NCO. Bank loans to non-bank lenders crossed ~$1.6T (FFIEC) with about a quarter being private credit. DOJ probing BlackRock fund valuations, FSB/BoE/ECB all warning on data gaps, opacity and spillover risk. Second: credit unions and non-bank consumer lenders. NCUA consumer NCO at 1.82% (nearly 2x pre-crisis), cards at 5.11% past the 4.68% GFC peak, used vehicle loans at the highest on record. Non-banks carrying the weakest paper. Single-image chart post with Q1 2026 numbers across the bank book - Total Loans 0.58%, Real Estate, Consumer, C&I segments and All Other.
Is Private Credit Turning Into a Lemon? Bank of England Says So. Default Rate at a Record 6.0%. Banks and Insurers Deep In It.
Fourth dispatch in the private credit series. Bank of England's Sarah Breeden invokes Akerlof's 'market for lemons' - information asymmetry and adverse selection driving out the good ones. Fitch private credit default rate hits a record 6.0% in April (trailing 12 months); 9 in 10 'defaults' are PIK / interest deferral / maturity extensions, not bankruptcies. KKR rescues its own $12.3B FSK fund with $300M after JPMorgan-led banks cut the credit line by $648M. Manhattan US Attorney (SDNY) probes BlackRock TCPC's loan valuations after a 19% off-cycle NAV cut. US banks have extended ~$300B credit lines to private credit funds (JPMorgan $22B, Citi $22B direct). Insurers hold 10%+ of assets in private credit, 15%+ for PE-affiliated insurers like Athene and Global Atlantic. FSB, IMF, BoE, ECB, OCC, Fed and DOJ all moved in eight weeks. Layered-leverage pattern mirrors 2008 subprime. Includes 19-slide deck and 30+ source citations.
India's Next Tech Wave. AI Data Centers for the World. Adani, Reliance, Airtel, L&T. Same Pattern as Software in the 2000s.
India's next tech wave - AI data centers for the world - is being built by infra players Adani, Reliance, Bharti Airtel and L&T. World is out of compute and out of power - global data centers ~97% full, leased before they're finished. Big-4 US tech firms guided ~$700bn capex in 2026 and still can't keep up. First movers in India: Google's $15bn / 1 GW Vizag hub (largest outside US), Adani $100bn by 2035, Reliance $110bn / 7yr Jamnagar, Microsoft $17.5bn Hyderabad live mid-2026, AWS $12.7bn by 2030, TCS HyperVault. Government policy backing: 2047 tax holiday for foreign cloud firms, IndiaAI Mission, 15% safe harbour. India's edge isn't lower-cost labour - it's industrial build muscle for gigawatt-scale capacity. Risks covered: US-India relations and chip access, water and heat in stressed regions, land approvals. Includes 15-slide deck and full source links (JLL, McKinsey, CEEW, Jefferies, BIS, CNBC, Google, Microsoft, Adani, Reliance, etc.).
Trump Trades. From Mostly Bonds to 3,642 Equity Trades in One Filing. Free Tool to Search Every Transaction.
9 months of mostly bonds in President Trump's OGE filings broken by one filing on 14 May 2026 carrying 3,642 equity trades, $220M to $750M. Heavy activity in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle. 15 filings since Aug 2025 - earlier 14 combined had 1,726 trades almost all bonds. Built a free interactive tool on top of the OGE PDFs - every transaction searchable across 1,058 tickers, click any company to see trade timeline overlaid on price chart, CSV download. Short analysis deck included on most active tickers, top buys, top sells, and policy overlaps press has flagged.
Three Red Flags Hit Together. 30Y at 5.14%, PPI at 5.99%, Brent Above $100. Setup Worse Than 2000 or 2007.
Three macro red flags hit at the same time, each a major disruptor on its own: US 30-year Treasury yield 5.14% (first since 2007), US Producer prices 5.99% (15-year high ex-COVID), Brent above $100 (IEA calls it the largest oil supply disruption in history). Alongside: S&P 7,400 with CAPE 39.6 (2nd-highest in 145 years), auto loan losses past 2007 GFC peak, unemployment near Q3 2007 levels, Mag 7 ~35% of S&P (NVIDIA alone 8.9%). The last time these general patterns showed up: 2000 and 2007. 2026 is looking worse.
Dimon Was Right. More Cockroaches Arrive. UK Lender MFS Collapses - $2.5B Across 12+ Global Banks.
UK lender MFS collapsed in February with $2.5B exposure across 12+ global banks - Barclays $308M, HSBC $400M, Atlas/Apollo $508M, Santander $267M, Elliott $254M, Wells Fargo $182M. £2.4B loan book, fraud and double-pledging allegations. £230M verified collateral against £1.16B owed (80% shortfall). Affiliated lending chain: HSBC > Apollo Atlas > Zircon Bridging > MFS.
S&P at 7,400. Irrational Exuberance. The Last Two Times This Setup Held, the Index Halved.
S&P 500 at 7,400 with Irrational Exuberance. Last two times setup held: 2000 dot com -49% in 30 months, 2007 subprime -57% in 17 months. Apply pattern math, S&P lands 3,200-3,800. CAPE 39.6 (2nd time in 145 years), auto delinquencies past GFC peak, U-6 back to pre-GFC, PPI 25-year high ex-COVID, Brent $106. Dimon: too much exuberance. Buffett on $397B cash.
US Consumer Lending Is Already at Crisis-Level Numbers - Without a Recession. NY Fed Q1 2026 Data.
NY Fed Q1 2026 release. Auto delinquencies past GFC peak. Cards near it. Mortgage stock calm but flow rate cracking. HELOC usage and delinquencies rising. Home prices down 9% from 2022 peak. U-6 unemployment back to pre-GFC 2007 levels. Underwater mortgages up in 45 states YoY. Crisis numbers without a recession.
US Fed Financial Stability Report May 2026. Same Stress Points - Now in Fed Own Survey.
US Fed FSR May 2026 covers 4 of the top 6 shocks already in tigzig.com/analysis - private credit (life insurance exposure, bank lending to non-banks), AI impact (labor displacement), oil shock (spot-futures divergence), risk asset correction (S&P disbelief rally). Plus consumer/auto lending stress and stagflation-lite.
Red Flag in US Life Insurance. $2.4T (7.5% of GDP) in Private Credit and Offshore Reinsurance.
US Life Insurers have $2.4T (7.5% of US GDP) in private credit and offshore reinsurance. $1.2T in Fed Unidentified Misc Assets, $1.2T offshore reinsurance memo. Both nearly doubled in 5 years. PE-affiliated loop - same firms own insurers, credit funds and offshore reinsurers. Doom loop risk if retirees surrender annuities en masse.
The Convergence Risk. Credit Stress Already Past 2007 Pre-Crisis. Five Aggravators Stacking On Top.
Multiple credit stress signals at the same time across US banks, credit unions, consumer debt. Past 2007 pre-crisis on most metrics. Auto loans already at GFC peak. 5 aggravators on top - AI labor shock, U-1 above 2007, GDP at 0.5%, Brent $100+, private credit stress with $2.5T+ exposure. Warnings from Jamie Dimon and Sarah Breeden.
US Credit Unions on TREMOR. Card Charge-Offs at 5.11% - Already Past the 2009 GFC Peak.
US Credit Unions analytics on TREMOR. 23 years, 86 quarters, $1.72T loans across 4,287 federally-insured credit unions from NCUA quarterly FPR. Card NCO at 5.11% past 4.68% GFC peak. Consumer NCO at 1.82% vs 0.99% pre-crisis. 18 segments, 30-59 DPD, 60+ DPD, NCO. CSV download with 74-field reference.
The Crisis in Auto Loans. 2007 was Sub-Prime Mortgage. Is 2026 Auto?
NY Fed Auto 90+DPD at 5.21% vs 5.27% at GFC peak. Bank auto NCO at 2x 2011 baseline. Credit union NCO at 0.95% record high. S&P ABS subprime NCO ~10%. Tricolor fraud $800M. First Brands fraud $2.3B. $1.67T direct exposure plus $350B in ABS. FDIC SDI, NY Fed CCP, NCUA, S&P Global, FFIEC analysis.
S&P at All-Time High. Under the Hood, Things Are Cracking. Just Like October 2007.
S&P at ATH while private credit at 2x 2007 subprime showing stress. Credit card and auto delinquencies above 2007 pre-crisis. Bank charge-offs higher than 2007. AI displacing workers at unprecedented pace inside a stress cycle. Tracking across FFIEC, FDIC, NY Fed, IEA, Challenger, Anthropic Economic Index.
The Masking Effect in Oil Markets - The Price You See on Screens Is Hiding a $50 Supply Shock
Largest spot-futures divergence in oil market history. Brent futures at $94, physical crude at $144. Analysis of 9,864 trading days since 1987. 40 bids vs 4 offers in North Sea. Diesel near $200/bbl. US gasoline inventories at 16-year lows. Hormuz shut 40 days, Kuwait says 3-4 months to restore.
India's Credit-Deposit Ratio Just Hit 83%. A 15-Year High. Gold Loans Up 4x in Two Years.
India credit-deposit ratio at 83%, 15-year high. Gold loans up 4x in two years. NBFC loans up 21% in 9 months. Six sectors growing at 2x overall rate pulling one-third of new credit. Credit grew 12.3% vs deposits 9%. Housing growth slowed. RBI sectoral data analysis.
Are We Headed for Stagflation-Lite
Stagflation-Lite signals intensifying. Fed trapped between inflation and weak jobs. US 10Y at 4.4%, PPI at 3.4% with oil shock not yet in data, GDP at 0.7%, consumer sentiment 7th lowest in 40 years, Moody recession odds at 48.6%. Bond markets pricing in high inflation globally.
US Banks & Non-Bank Lending - How Deep is the Exposure? Is there a Systemic Risk?
US banks hold $1.57 trillion in loans to non-bank lenders facing redemptions and defaults. 41 banks have this single portfolio exceeding 100% of core capital. 62 banks have loan loss reserves covering less than 10% of exposure. Analysis from FFIEC Call Reports for 629 banks across 5 quarters, cross-validated against FDIC, FRED and S&P Global.
Private Credit - The $2.7 Trillion Shadow Lending Market Is Showing Cracks
Private credit showing cracks that remind Wall Street of 2008. Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein flagging risks. 40% of borrowers have negative cash flow. Blackstone scrambled to meet $3.8B in redemptions. Management companies down 30-50% in 6 months.
Structural Weakness Intensifying
3 major US macro data points in 3 days all pointing the same direction. Feb payrolls minus 92K against expectations of 59K rise. PPI Core at 3.87%. Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. Brent crude nearly doubled in 3 months. Delinquencies past COVID highs. Multiple macro signals flashing stress simultaneously.
Tremor - Macro Early Warning Signals - March 2026
S&P down 5%, Nifty in bear territory down 12% from highs. CAPE at 40-year highs, gold going vertical, crude shooting towards 2008 levels, US delinquencies crossing COVID highs. When macro signals move together - tremors before a quake. 12 chart slides from tremor.tigzig.com.
Tool & Data Releases
18
The Data Behind My Analyses Is Now Open. Download the Whole Database or Query a Single Row.
Over 20 Market Tools, Free. Built and Used for My Own Analysis. Now on tigzig.com/markets.
Track Trump's Stock Trades. Public Filing Explorer. 3,568 Trades, 986 Tickers, $220M-$750M. Searchable on TREMOR.
TREMOR. Six Free Tools for Banking and Insurance Analysts. Multi-Layer Validated. Built by a Practitioner.
US Insurance Assets Tracker - 25 Years of Data, 73 Series, Life & P&C
Releasing BRSR Analytics Tool. For Tracking Indian Corporate ESG, Workforce, Wages, Complaints.
Releasing US-CREDIT. For Analysts Tracking US Banking. Interactive Tool Covering FDIC SDI and NY Fed CCP.
Analytics Tool for India's Bank Credit
Anthropic Released Claude Managed Agents Yesterday, Live on TREMOR Today
US Bank Exposure to Non-Bank Lenders - Now in an Interactive Analytics Tool
NDFI Analytics - US Bank Exposure to Non-Bank Lenders
Three Tools I Built for Market Analysis - QSUITE, TREMOR, QREP
TREMOR - Macro Early Warning Dashboard - 50+ Indicators, Updated Daily
VIGIL Data API and Download - 315K+ Records, 7 Tables, Updated Daily
India Mutual Fund NAV Data Since 2013 - 19.8M+ Records. Download or Query via API. Free. No Auth.
Now live - MFPRO v2 - Mutual Fund Analytics (India) - now with rolling returns, custom eval periods, multi-period & multi-instrument comparisons
QRep - Powered by QuantStats. Live Now.
