Structural Weakness Intensifying
Published: March 20, 2026
3 major data points in 3 days. All pointing the same direction. US macro signals flashing red - and the ripple effects are global.
US Feb payrolls: minus 92K. Against expectations of 59K rise. 5th time in 9 months the economy lost jobs.
PPI Core: 3.87%. Producers paying more - and the March oil shock hasn't even hit the data yet.
Fed: Held at 3.5-3.75%. Can't cut because inflation. Can't hike because employment.
Brent crude nearly doubled in 3 months. Delinquencies past COVID highs. Retail sales declining. Yield curve flattening with both ends rising.
I track key macro signals daily on Tremor (tremor.tigzig.com).
Right now many are flashing stress simultaneously.
Structural Weakness Intensifying - March 2026
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You don’t know who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out. - Buffet
Ghosts of 2008
Is Private Credit going to be the straw that broke the Camel’s back
What is Private Credit & Direct Lending
2025E Private Lending ~2.7T & direct lending ~1.4T
Direct Lending > 50% of all private credit
Evolution of Direct Lending - Morgan Stanley – 2026Private credit investments: 'Some caution is reasonable,' advisor says
Private credit is lending outside the traditional banking system - private lenders originate loans directly with borrowers
Post-2008, banks retreated from lending to smaller firms. Direct lending filled that gap for middle market companies
Banks are still exposed - they fund private lenders (BDCs)
Retail/HNW investors exposed via BDCs, new private credit ETFs & Pension fund investments
“A significant private credit shakeout on par with Covid losses is coming” – Morgan Stanley
Private credit shakeout matching Covid losses coming, Morgan Stanley saysEvolution of Direct Lending - Morgan Stanley - 2026
“In our view, AI disruption will be a meaningful catalyst to drive defaults higher in direct lending… Overall, we expect the direct lending default rates to reach 8%, approaching Covid peak levels”
- strategist Morgan Stanley Joyce Jiang (as reported by CNBC)
Premise: New technology & AI ➜ erode demand for software services ➜ hurt lenders
Morgan Stanley estimates that ~26% of direct lender portfolios (BDCs) and ~19% of private credit CLOs are exposed to software - a sector highly vulnerable to AI disruption
Investors in private credit demanding their money back
Blackstone's flagship private credit fund posts first monthly loss in over three years | ReutersWhy Wall Street is calling out ‘echoes’ of the 2008 financial crisis | CNN BusinessAfter pouring billions into private credit, many investors want out
Blackstone, the private equity giant: $3.8 billion in redemption requests. At least 25 senior leaders from across the firm pitched in some $150 million from their own wallets .
BCRED, Blackstones flagship private credit fund posted its first monthly loss of 0.4% in more than three years in February, it’s first since September 2022 ,when it posted a loss of 1.3%.
Blue Owl - hit with withdrawal requests. Halts redemptions and liquidates assets to repay.
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more… Everyone should be forewarned on this” Jamie Dimon
Why Jamie Dimon is warning of ‘cockroaches’ in the US economy | CNN Business
Beyond software, the other stress point is subprime auto lending. In 2008 it was toxic mortgages - today the red flag is car loans Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lender) went bust Sep 2025. Even JPMorgan took a $170M hit from this single bankruptcy First Brands (auto-parts) filed Chapter 11 with ~$2.3B in hidden loans. DOJ opened a criminal probe - echoes of Lehman
Dimon’s point: these may be isolated, but in a downturn more will surface - “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more”
Are Car Loans the next ‘toxic mortgages’
Structural weaknesses intensifying
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Non Farm Payroll
2-yr downtrend
↑
Jobless Rate
Creeping up
↑
Brent Crude
Nearly 2x
↑
PPI Core
15-yr high
↑
PPI Overall
Oil shock pending
↓
Retail Sales
Declining
↑
30+ DPD Delinquency
Past COVID highs
↓
Yield Curve
Falling
↓
Equity Markets
5-10% off highs
Unemployment creeping up steadily the past 2 years
Past 20 Years
Brent moving towards 2008 territory
Nearly doubled in past 3 months – supply shock as strait of Hormuz remains closed
Past 25 Years
US 30+ DPD has already crossed the COVID highs
Past 20 Years
Markets are already pricing in the weakness
S&P 500 is down ~5% from its Jan 2026 high
Nifty 50 is down ~10% from its Jan 2026 high
DAX is down ~8% from its Jan 2026 high
No predictions.
Just data. Tracked daily
10 Signals – all pointing in same direction