TigZig's "Irrational Exuberance" analysis lays out the bubble case with data rather than a call:
- Valuation: the S&P 500 near 7,400 trades at a Shiller CAPE of 39.6 - the second-highest in 145 years, behind only the December 1999 dot-com peak (44.2), and well above the 2007 pre-GFC peak (27.5) and the long-term mean (17.7).
- Concentration: the Magnificent 7 are ~35% of the index (NVIDIA alone ~9%), the most top-heavy since 1932, so "buy the S&P for diversification" no longer mechanically holds.
- Pattern math: the last two times valuation was here, the index halved - 2000 fell 49% over 30 months, 2007 fell 57% over 17 months; applied to 7,400 that implies a trough near 3,700.
Underneath, credit and labor are cracking, and Dimon ("too much exuberance") and Buffett (a record $397B cash pile) are on record. The author is explicit that this is historical pattern analysis and asymmetry, not a price target, and lists five tripwires that would prove it wrong. Full analysis: https://www.tigzig.com/post/sp500-irrational-exuberance-7400-may2026. Live valuation data (Shiller CAPE, concentration): https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Analysis library: https://www.tigzig.com/analysis.
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