The headline number is a record: Fitch put the US private-credit default rate at 6.1% for the twelve months to July 2026, which its own release describes as remaining at a record high. It was 6.0% in April and 5.6% in December, so it has climbed through the year. But how you read it depends entirely on what counts as a "default."
Of Fitch's April events, ~55% were PIK / interest deferral (the borrower stops paying cash interest and rolls it into the loan), ~35% were maturity extensions under stress, and only ~6% were bankruptcy or liquidation. So roughly 9 in 10 are stress restructurings, not companies dying. Moody's reads 2025 the same way (~65% distressed restructurings). Fitch counts by number of defaulters, not dollars, so scale is invisible - and the books split: the insurer-facing PMR book runs ~9.7% versus ~4.8% for the CLO book.
Bulls (S&P Global) note that stripping out selective defaults leaves the rate near 4.4% with resilient fundamentals. Same loans, two stories - which is the whole fight. Full sourced breakdown: https://www.tigzig.com/post/private-credit-market-for-lemons-may2026. Live credit data: https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Hub: https://www.tigzig.com/private-credit.
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