The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report (FSR) set out the shocks most cited by market participants for the next 12-18 months. Four of them line up with stress points TigZig had already been tracking:
- Private credit - including life-insurer exposure and bank lending to non-banks. The Fed flagged that elevated use of payment-in-kind (PIK) provisions "indicates some borrowers may face repayment difficulties," and that life insurers' shift into risky, illiquid assets "has contributed to the expansion of private credit."
- AI impact - labor displacement.
- An oil shock.
- A risk-asset correction - an equity-market pullback.
It also noted consumer and auto lending stress. The significance is that these are no longer just outside-analyst calls - they are in the Fed's own survey. Full note (with the Fed FSR PDF linked): https://www.tigzig.com/post/fed-fsr-may2026-stress-points-match-analysis. The underlying analyses + live data: https://www.tigzig.com/analysis and https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Private-credit hub: https://www.tigzig.com/private-credit.
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