The consumer side is under real stress; the system overall is not failing yet. US credit unions are a $1.73 trillion lending system now running GFC-era loss rates in consumer lending, without a recession. Card charge-offs hit 5.30% in Q1 2026, above the 2008-09 crisis peak of 4.68% for 10 consecutive quarters - a plateau, not a spike. Real estate and commercial are calm (59% of loans, 4% of losses); the strain is concentrated in consumer, which is 41% of loans but 95% of the losses, with auto net charge-offs at a fresh series record. Measured against each sector's own GFC peak, credit-union cards are at 113% (past it) versus banks at just 38%.
The system-level flags: the Share Insurance Fund equity ratio has slipped to 1.30%, below the 1.33% normal operating level, so a loss wave could force a premium assessment on every surviving credit union (precedent: the 2009-10 corporate credit-union crisis). The NCUA is currently run by a single board member. Some relief: consumer balances are about $19B below their end-2023 peak and falling, the shape of deliberate tightening, though vintages already booked will run their loss curves.
Explore the NCUA data live: https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Full analysis (13-slide deck): https://www.tigzig.com/post/credit-union-red-flag-jun2026. Related: the broader US consumer credit picture https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-us-consumer-credit-delinquencies-at-crisis-levels.
← All Agents FAQ