The consumer side is under real stress; the system overall is not failing yet. US credit unions are a $1.76 trillion lending system now running GFC-era loss rates in consumer lending, without a recession. Card charge-offs hit 5.30% in Q1 2026, above the 2008-09 crisis peak of 4.68% for 10 consecutive quarters - a plateau, not a spike. Real estate and commercial are calm (59% of loans, 4% of losses); the strain is concentrated in consumer, which is 41% of loans but 95% of the losses, with auto net charge-offs at a fresh series record. Measured against each sector's own GFC peak, credit-union cards are at 113% (past it) versus banks at just 38%.
Q2 2026, the quarter the NCUA published on 14 September. Charge-offs across all lending are 0.76% taking the quarter on its own and annualising it, against 0.49% in Q3 2007 before the crisis, 0.56% before COVID, and a 1.33% peak in Q4 2009. 60-plus-day delinquency is above its pre-COVID level in every segment. Consumer is doing most of it: 41% of the book, two thirds of that auto, and the auto charge-off rate is 1.74% against 1.09% pre-COVID and a 2.21% crisis peak. Commercial shows the widest gap of the four segments (1.23% delinquent against 0.66% pre-COVID). Property is the odd one: delinquency has moved 0.58% to 0.83% while charge-offs have not moved at all and sit at 0.02%, which is unexplained rather than benign. The book is growing and changing shape at once - total loans $1.76 trillion, up 4.9% on the year, with property and commercial growing while auto has SHRUNK 2% in dollars over three years.
The NCUA's own release says 0.78% for the same quarter, on a year-to-date annualised basis. Both are right and it is a basis difference, explained here.
The system-level flags: the Share Insurance Fund equity ratio has slipped to 1.30%, below the 1.33% normal operating level, so a loss wave could force a premium assessment on every surviving credit union (precedent: the 2009-10 corporate credit-union crisis). The NCUA is currently run by a single board member. Some relief: consumer balances are about $19B below their end-2023 peak and falling, the shape of deliberate tightening, though vintages already booked will run their loss curves.
Explore the NCUA data live: https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Latest quarter: https://www.tigzig.com/post/credit-union-q2-2026-losses-delinquency-sep2026. Full analysis (13-slide deck): https://www.tigzig.com/post/credit-union-red-flag-jun2026. Related: the broader US consumer credit picture https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-us-consumer-credit-delinquencies-at-crisis-levels.
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