That is the core argument of TigZig's "Disbelief Rally" analysis: the S&P at an all-time high looks a lot like October 2007, when markets hit new highs while subprime was already cracking. The cracks today are in different places but stacking together:
- Consumer credit: auto 90+ day delinquencies ~5.2-5.6% (past the ~5.3% GFC peak), credit cards ~13.1% (near the 13.7% peak), and all consumer debt 90+ DPD ~3.4% (past the 3.1% pre-GFC reading) - reached without a recession.
- Banks: charge-off rates already past 2007 pre-crisis levels.
- Hidden leverage: a ~$2.7T private-credit / BDC market marked at par, roughly double the ~$1.5T subprime pile of 2007, now under stress.
- Labor: U-6 underemployment ~8.2%, near 2007's ~8.4% and drifting up for two-plus years.
The wildcard 2007 did not have is AI displacing labor inside the same cycle. The author frames it as asymmetry, not a forecast, with explicit tripwires that would disprove it. Full analysis: https://www.tigzig.com/post/sp500-ath-cracking-underneath-oct2007-parallel. Live credit/macro data: https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Analysis library: https://www.tigzig.com/analysis.
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