On several core metrics, yes - the data has already breached 2007 pre-crisis levels. Bank consumer and commercial net charge-offs are past their Q3-2007 mark (4,400+ FDIC-insured banks); credit-union charge-offs are near 2x pre-crisis (4,200+ CUs); and NY Fed consumer 90+ day delinquencies have passed 2007, with auto loans at the GFC peak. The thesis is "convergence risk": not one signal, but many at once.
Then the five aggravators stacking on top: private credit under stress at $2.5T+ (banks' lending to non-bank lenders alone is $1.5T+); U-1 long-term unemployment at 1.8%, already above 2007; energy risk with Brent $100+; an AI labor shock (Duke CFO survey projects AI-attributed layoffs ~9x the 2025 baseline); and Q4-2025 GDP growth at just 0.5%. Jamie Dimon: "when we have [a credit recession]... it might be terrible." The BoE's Sarah Breeden: what keeps her awake is "a number of risks crystallising at the same time."
The read: at this pace the setup already looks worse than pre-GFC 2007, and the aggravators could push past GFC levels. Full analysis with charts and sources: https://www.tigzig.com/post/convergence-risk-credit-stress-past-2007. Track the live signals (FDIC, NCUA, NY Fed): https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Related: are auto loans the next subprime https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/are-auto-loans-the-next-subprime-crisis.
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