Yes, on the Fed's own gauge. Core PCE - the measure the Fed targets at 2% - is at 3.3% and re-accelerating, and has now spent 62 straight months above target (the 25-year pre-Covid average was 1.7%). Outside Covid, it was last this high in April 1992.
The pipeline points higher: producer prices (PPI final demand at 6.4%, core PPI 4.9%) are the hottest in the modern series outside Covid, and PPI is running about 2.2 points ahead of CPI - so producers are absorbing the bigger share now (margin compression), with consumer pass-through likely to follow. The consumer is already stretched: gasoline near $4.65 and 90+ day delinquencies on consumer debt at 3.4%, past the 2007 mark.
TigZig tracks all of these series live: https://www.tigzig.com/tremor. Full analysis with series codes: https://www.tigzig.com/post/us-inflation-shock-no-modern-playbook-jun2026. Related: is the S&P masking the cracks - https://www.tigzig.com/agents-faq/is-sp500-at-all-time-highs-masking-credit-stress.
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