Because a rally that began on bullish expectations in early 2025 ran into a squeeze, and since the January top the support has been giving way. Spot silver closed at $51.78 on 5 November 2026, 56% below its peak close of $116.58 on 28 January. The 30 October low of $48.90 was 58% below it. COMEX silver futures closed at $51.80 on 5 November.
How it rose. Uncertainty was high in early 2025 and silver looked cheap against gold. Hedge funds, here meaning managed money in COMEX silver futures, per the CFTC, went from a net long of 17,170 contracts at the end of 2024 to 44,927 on 1 July 2025, about 2.6 times. In August 2025 silver went on the draft US critical minerals list and traders feared a tariff. Metal moved from London to US vaults, London lease rates spiked, and by September only 17% of the silver in London vaults was available outside funds, per Reuters. That set up the squeeze of October 2025.
Who was selling. The CFTC data shows hedge funds cutting from mid-2025: net long was 44,927 on 1 July, 34,921 on 30 September, 14,008 on 30 December and 7,699 at the January top, more than 80% below the March 2025 peak of 49,488. ETFs took the other side and bought about 278 million ounces in 2025, against 67.5 million in 2024, per Metals Focus. The CFTC figures cover COMEX futures only. London and physical trading are not in them.
The fall. CNBC reported that the 30 January crash was first set off by reports of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair. Silver fell 27% that day, and CME margin hikes announced the same day deepened the fall. Since then the reasons have been a mix. India restricted silver imports in May, and Reuters reported imports of 46.8 tonnes that month against 534.3 a year earlier. In late October India issued permits for about 6,500 tonnes over six months, which Reuters said could support prices. Silver used in solar panels is forecast to fall 19% this year, ETFs have sold about 60 million ounces this year, inflation and rates stay high, and jewellery demand is lower. After the US midterms silver and gold bounced, and Wall Street then fell hard on AI worries.
What others expect. These are third-party views, and not a forecast. Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone called $50 the first good support on 13 October and sees a risk of lower prices, with the 10-year mean near $31. Sucden Financial says silver could rebound to between $57 and $60 by mid-January after a dip to $50 to $53. The World Bank forecasts a 2027 average of $62, about 20% above the 5 November price, and expects high prices to cut solar and jewellery use.
Notes. The 58% is the fall to the 30 October low and the 56% is the fall to the 5 November close. Gold is about 25% below its January peak. For information only. Not investment advice. Full post with the chart and every source: https://www.tigzig.com/post/silver-56-percent-below-peak-hedge-funds-etfs-nov2026. Related: why gold is falling and whether $4,000 held and is the US stock market in a bubble? Live price history, free and with no key: api.tigzig.com/v1/series?ids=SI=F.
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