It held three times, then gave way on 30 October 2026. Spot gold peaked at $5,416 on 28 January 2026, in a short spike: it was under $4,900 two days later. By 29 October it was about 26% off that peak. $4,000 held three times: spot closed at $3,929 on 29 October 2025, $3,976 on 16 July and $3,995 on 23 October 2026, and each time it was back above $4,000 within days. On 30 October gold futures closed at $3,884.90, below all three of those lows and their lowest close since 2 October 2025.
Reasons reported for the slide. An oil shock from the Iran war that keeps inflation up, an expected Fed rate hike in December, US 10-year Treasuries paying close to 5% while gold pays nothing, and margin calls in the tech sell-off.
What has been holding it up. Central banks are still buying: 170 tonnes this year to August, per the World Gold Council, and China's central bank has bought for 23 months in a row. Festival buying in India picked up as prices fell. Gold has also drawn safe-haven money in past stock-market falls. Analysts polled by Reuters cut their 2026 forecasts but expect a recovery in 2027.
Notes on the data. The spot figures are CNBC closes to 29 October 2026. The 30 October close is gold futures (Yahoo Finance GC=F), which peaked lower, at $5,318 on 29 January. Silver has fallen more than 50% from its January high. Pull the futures series yourself, free and with no key: api.tigzig.com/v1/series?ids=GC=F.
Analysis of public sources, for information only. Not investment advice. Full post with the chart: https://www.tigzig.com/post/gold-4000-third-test-oct2026. Related: how long past market falls took to recover and who is warning about AI debt and returns.
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