From about six months to seven years, since 2000. Each time below runs from a record close to the next close above it, on the price index without dividends. With dividends the recoveries would be shorter.
- S&P 500: 2000-02, down 49%, 7.2 years to regain the high. 2007-09, down 57%, 5.5 years. 2020, down 34%, 0.5 years. 2022, down 25%, 2.0 years.
- Sensex: 2000-01, down 56%, 3.9 years. 2008-09, down 61%, 2.8 years. 2010-11, down 28%, 3.0 years. 2020, down 38%, 0.8 years.
Where markets are now. On 23 October 2026 the Nifty 50 was about 14% below its 2 January 2026 record and the Sensex about 15% below its January high. The S&P 500 was about 2.5% below its 6 October record. The Sensex has not closed at a record since September 2024, though it came within 0.09% on 2 January 2026, when the Nifty set a new one. The long history uses the Sensex because Yahoo's Nifty 50 history starts in 2007.
Amar Harolikar's read: it is like the dot-com bust and 2008 happening at the same time, a revolutionary technology in a potential valuation bubble while global macro shows cracks in stocks, oil, gold, US jobs, consumers and housing. The other side: the warners are not calling it a crisis yet, and the companies building AI see the returns still to come. For information only. Not investment advice.
Pull the history yourself: daily closes for the Nifty 50, the Sensex and the S&P 500 come free from TigZig's Yahoo Finance API: where to get index levels.
Full post with the 8-page deck: https://www.tigzig.com/post/drawdowns-this-time-different-oct2026. Related: is the US stock market in a bubble?, who is warning about AI debt and returns and is the US housing market frozen?
Building something like this? How I work covers the rates, the availability and what I take on.