Gold Is 26% Off Its Peak and Testing $4,000 for the Third Time
Published: October 30, 2026
Live gold price is flirting with $4,000. It dipped to $3,988 earlier today and bounced back. Reported reasons for its latest slide: an oil shock from the Iran war that keeps inflation up, an expected Fed rate hike in December, US 10-year Treasuries paying close to 5% while gold pays nothing, and margin calls in the tech sell-off.
And the reported reasons it is holding up
Central banks are still buying. China's has added gold every month for almost two years. Festival buying in India picked up as prices fell. Diwali is next month. Gold has also drawn safe-haven money in past stock-market falls.
$4,000 has held three times since last October.
And what about silver?
It has already fallen more than 50% from its January high, but that is a separate story.
More analysis at tigzig.com/analysis
A few points related to the charts
The charts use spot gold, CNBC closes to 29 Oct. COMEX futures peaked lower, $5,318 on 29 Jan.
The peak was a short spike: $5,416 on 28 Jan, under $4,900 two days later.
The three tests closed at $3,929 (29 Oct 2025), $3,976 (16 Jul) and $3,995 (23 Oct). Each time it was back above $4,000 within days.
Falls are peak to low on daily closes. Time to regain ends at the first close back above the peak.
Central banks bought 170 tonnes this year to August, per the World Gold Council.
China's central bank has bought for 23 months in a row.
Analysts polled by Reuters cut their 2026 forecasts but expect a recovery in 2027.
Links
CNBC, 23 Oct: cnbc.com/2026/10/23/gold-heads-for-steep-weekly-loss-as-oil-prices-fuel-fed-rate-concerns.html
CNBC, 27 Oct: cnbc.com/2026/10/27/gold-eases-on-firmer-dollar-ahead-of-fed-decision.html
CNBC, 29 Oct: cnbc.com/2026/10/29/gold-slips-as-markets-assess-fed-signals-await-us-inflation-data.html
CNBC, 12 Oct: cnbc.com/2026/10/12/china-gold-buying-interest-rate-.html
World Gold Council: gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/10/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-banks-continue-summer-spree-august
My earlier analysis
Gold up 2.3x in two years, but what about the 10-year drawdown in between, 2 Dec 2025. Buying at the 2011 peak meant waiting almost nine years to get back: tigzig.com/post/gold-up-2-3x-past-2-years-but-what-about-the-10-years-drawdown-in-between-as-buffett-says
Could this time be different? Past drawdowns, AI valuations and cracks across markets and the economy, 24 Oct: tigzig.com/post/drawdowns-this-time-different-oct2026
India bank credit is up 19%, led by lending to NBFCs, 19 Sep. Bank loans against gold jewellery were up 88% over the year, part of it reclassification: tigzig.com/post/india-sectoral-credit-jul2026-nbfc-sep2026
Bond markets have been warning for months. Now they have started acting, 25 Sep. The US 10-year closed above 5%, last seen in 2007: tigzig.com/post/bond-market-rout-sep2026
A correction in AI valuations is looking more likely, 31 Aug: tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026
Analysis of public sources, for information only. Not investment advice.
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