US Diesel Is Above $6 a Gallon for the First Time, and the Cost Is Already Moving Through the Economy
Published: September 26, 2026
US diesel is above $6 a gallon for the first time. It was $6.53 on 21 September, up 74% on a year ago, and the cost is already moving through the economy.
Diesel powers the trucks, trains and farm machines that carry almost everything, so when it goes up the cost reaches household bills and company margins. Truck freight rates are up 14% on a year. Airfares are up 23%, and jet fuel comes from the same part of the barrel as diesel. Heating oil is forecast to cost up to 31% more this winter if prices hold. Farmers are paying for it at harvest, and small truckers most of all, because they have the least room to pass it on.
The squeeze is in refining. Crude is off its April peak, but diesel now costs about $3.60 a gallon more than Brent crude, wider than at any point in 2022. The IEA expects Russian refining to stay about 30% below its pre-war level for the next 18 months, after drone strikes and sanctions, and the Iran war has hit refineries in the Gulf.
On how long this could last: the IEA says the drone strikes now hit the secondary units of Russian refineries, which take six to eight months to replace, and sanctions make repairs harder. Its September report also shows refining margins in the Atlantic Basin at record levels in August, led by diesel. So a ceasefire would not bring diesel down quickly.
Washington is now weighing a ban on diesel exports. Trump has backed one and says a decision will come soon, the Treasury is checking whether it would work, and the oil industry says it would raise prices. As of this week no decision has been made.
This comes on top of pressure that was already building. The US 10-year yield closed above 5% this month for the first time since 2007, the job market looks calm only on the headline numbers, and the Fed raised rates on 16 September with inflation still above its target.
Earlier pieces in this series
All my earlier analyses: tigzig.com/analysis
Sources
Sources for the one-pager are EIA, BLS via FRED, the IEA's September Oil Market Report and TREMOR.
IEA on Russian refining: Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
CNBC on how diesel costs spread through the economy: Diesel, gas prices and the US economy
The diesel and inflation series behind the one-pager are on tigzig.com/tremor.
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