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Index at a Record. Peak Valuation. Record-Low Sentiment. Last Two Times This Setup Held - 2000 and 2007 - the Market Halved.

Published: June 8, 2026

Index at a record. Peak valuation. Lowest sentiments. And the economy cracking. Last two times the market was priced up here, 2000 and 2007, it halved. I was in the markets both times.

In dot com it was all about page views with no line of sight on revenues. In 2026 it is all about compute and revenues with no line of sight on cash profitability.

I don't doubt the potential of AI, just the existing stock valuations.

I put this out about a month back, when the S&P was at a fresh all-time high - 7,400 .. the 'Irrational Exuberance' note..

Consumer delinquencies running high, Unemployment running high, producer prices at their hottest in 25 years (excl. covid), oil and gasoline high and consumer streteched. And seven stocks doing most of the lifting in the index.

Dimon called it too much exuberance. Buffett's sitting on the biggest cash pile in Berkshire's history.

TIGZIG - US Markets - Jun 2026 - Expensive stocks. A record-low mood. Shiller CAPE near 41 P/E, the highest in 145 years apart from the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble (44), above the 2007 peak (28). University of Michigan consumer sentiment 44.8, the lowest in 73 years of data, below the 2022 low (50) and every recession since 1952. S&P 500 deepest drawdown -56.8% beginning Oct 2007, five years to climb back to even, 58% of its time spent in the seven worst drawdowns. tigzig.com -> Market Tools - valuations, sentiment, drawdowns - pull them, chart them, or hand them to an agent.

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TIGZIG · US MARKETS · JUN 2026  |  Amar Harolikar

Expensive stocks. A record-low mood.

US equity valuations sit near their highest in 145 years, and the consumer just hit its lowest mood ever. A reminder of what a deep drawdown looks like.

Valuation · Shiller CAPE

41 P/E

Near the highest in 145 years. Only the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble ran higher (44) - above the 2007 peak (28).

Consumer Sentiment

44.8

The lowest in 73 years of data. Below the 2022 low (50) and every recession since 1952.

What a deep S&P 500 drawdown looks like · from tigzig Market Tools

Deepest Drawdown · S&P 500: -56.8%

  • Began Oct 2007. Over five years to climb back to even.
  • 58% of its time spent in the seven worst drawdowns.

Where to start

tigzig.com → Market Tools

Valuations, sentiment, drawdowns - pull them, chart them, or hand them to an agent.

Notes: Shiller (CAPE) and University of Michigan (sentiment) via tigzig TREMOR; drawdowns via tigzig Market Tools · data through Jun 2026. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

tigzig.com · tools for analytics, quants & macro signals.

Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI.