Anthropic IPO Could Reach $2T. The Headwinds Are Already Here
Published: September 30, 2026
Reuters reports Anthropic's IPO could value it at more than $2T. Keeping aside the company's own numbers, a 2025 loss and an adjusted profit so far in 2026, it is going into a headwind of economic pressure, an ongoing bond market rout, Chinese open-weight competitors right on its heels and rising opposition to data centers.
On the technology I have no doubt. Pretty much all my work runs on Claude Code, and my public analytics tool site tigzig.com is built and secured with it.
My questions are about the valuation and the cash, and how soon the business turns cash positive... as it goes into a tough market.. and there are parallels with the dot com boom, bust and growth cycle.
The filing is confidential and these figures come from news reports.
Personal view. Not investment advice.
The Pentagon ruling, the founders' votes and the listing
A few more points from the news reports.
On 25 September a US appeals court upheld the Pentagon's label of Anthropic as a supply chain risk, which the Defense Department says means it threatens national security. Two days later President Trump had a private dinner with Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei at the White House. On 29 September Amodei was among the tech leaders who signed a voluntary AI safety accord with Trump, the White House Accord on Super Intelligence, which Trump called morally binding.
The seven co-founders will direct a single share carrying 50.1 per cent of the voting power on key corporate decisions, including the election of some directors.
The listing is expected on Nasdaq, and is likely to come after the November US midterm elections, per Reuters.
Earlier related notes
AI valuations, 31 August: the ECB says a correction is more likely. https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-valuation-correction-aug2026
A free Chinese model and cyber attacks, 30 September: in Anthropic's tests GLM-5.3 came close to Claude Mythos Preview, and NIST puts it about four months behind the best US models. https://www.tigzig.com/post/anthropic-glm53-open-weight-cyber-sep2026
AI build and the bond rout, 28 September: the five hyperscalers have nearly doubled their borrowing since 2023. https://www.tigzig.com/post/ai-hyperscalers-debt-bond-rout-sep2026
Anthropic IPO Could Reach $2T. The Headwinds Are Already Here
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Slide 1
TIGZIG
30 September 2026
Anthropic IPO could reach $2T. The headwinds are already here Anthropic lost 42 billion dollars in 2025, mostly a non-cash charge, on revenue of 4.6 billion. In 2026 it reported a positive adjusted operating profit for the second quarter, and expects another in the third. The company
Revenue pace above 100 billion a year in September.
2 trillion is about 20 times that pace.
About 414 of 518 billion of commitments over ten years must be paid.
Many large clients have no long-term contract.
Suppliers Amazon, Google and Microsoft are also investors.
Market headwinds
10-year yield at 5.26%, level with its 2007 high.
Inflation 3.4%, diesel above 6 dollars, job growth slowing.
Iran war continues, pressure on oil.
Opposition to data centres widespread.
A free Chinese model about four months behind the US in cyber.
IMPORTANT: the IPO filing is confidential. The 2025 figures are from Reuters, which has seen it. The 2026 figures are preliminary press reports. All may differ from the final filing. Sources are on each page.
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI1 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 2
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
At 18 to 20 times sales, 2 trillion implies about 100 billion a year, close to the reported revenue pace
Reuters reports the IPO could value Anthropic at more than 2 trillion dollars.
Morningstar's chief equity strategist, Michael Field, put that at around 18 to 20 times sales.
Second quarter revenue was a preliminary 11.5 billion or more, with a positive adjusted operating profit. Anthropic has told shareholders it expects another in the third quarter.
Revenue and implied sales, billion dollars 2025, full year 4.6 Run rate, July 2026 65 Revenue pace, September 2026 100+ Implied at 18 to 20x sales 100 to 111 Reported figures. The implied row is our arithmetic on the Morningstar multiple.
SourcesReuters 28 Sep | 29 Sep | Bloomberg via CNBC 15 Aug | CNBC 17 Aug | Reuters 13 Sep | Axios 18 Sep
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI2 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 3
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
In 2025, the last full year, Anthropic made an operating loss of more than 8 billion dollars on 4.6 billion of revenue
Billion dollars 4.6
- Revenue -7.3 1.6x revenue* Computing -5.3* Other costs -8.1* Operating loss -34 Non-cash charge -42 Net loss How customers paid 3.8 by usage 0.8 subscriptions
How it was sold 2.2 via Amazon and Google 2.4* other channels
The 34 billion is a non-cash accounting charge on financing that may turn into shares.
- 2026 looks different. Anthropic reported a positive adjusted operating profit for the second quarter, on preliminary revenue of 11.5 billion dollars or more (page 2).
- Our arithmetic from the reported figures.
SourcesReuters, 28 and 29 Sep: Anthropic prospectus | Anthropic 518 billion build | Anthropic's partners
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI3 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 4
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
About 414 of the 518 billion dollars of computing commitments must be paid
The costs are fixed 518 billion dollars of computing over about ten years. About 414 must be paid (our sum).
Broadcom 161, equipment leases
Google 111, to 2033, Anthropic pays any shortfall
Amazon 110, to 2036, Anthropic pays any shortfall
Microsoft 31, to 2033, non-cancellable
xAI (SpaceX) 84.5, to 2029, largely cancellable
AMD 20+, terms not reported
Much of the revenue is not locked in
Most revenue is paid by usage, 3.8 of the 4.6 billion in 2025.
Many of the largest clients have no long-term contract.
Two customers were about 12 per cent of revenue each.
47 per cent was sold through Amazon and Google, which are also suppliers and investors.
SourcesReuters, 28 and 29 Sep: Anthropic prospectus | Anthropic 518 billion build | Anthropic's partners
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI4 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 5
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
A free Chinese model is about four months behind the US frontier in cyber, NIST says
"A critical threshold in freely accessible capabilities has now been crossed," Anthropic, 29 September 2026 In Anthropic's tests GLM-5.3 built working exploits almost as often as Claude Mythos Preview. Anyone can download it. NIST says its cyber capabilities are still significantly lower than current US frontier models. A free model this close to the frontier can put pressure on what customers pay for AI. NIST Figure 1, as published 17 September. Blue: US models. Red: PRC-based.
SourcesAnthropic 29 Sep | NIST 17 Sep | GLM-5.3 cyber deck
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI5 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 6
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
The IPO is coming into headwinds
Bond yields are at their highest since 2007 The 10-year closed at 5.26% on 29 September, level with its June 2007 high. It sets the cost of money, and bears on profits, growth and asset valuations. 5.26%, 29 Sep 2026 10-year yield since 2006 5.26%, Jun 2007
The economy is under pressure Inflation is 3.4% on the Fed's PCE measure in August, against a 2% target. Diesel hit a record 6.53 dollars a gallon in dollar terms on 21 September, and the cost is moving through the economy. The Iran war continues and keeps pressure on oil. Job growth has slowed from 3.2% a year in early 2023 to 0.4%.
Opposition to data centres is widespread Opponents blocked or delayed 45 projects totalling about 68 billion dollars in the second quarter, more than half of the new large projects tracked, says Data Center Watch. There are 843 opposition groups across 49 states. New York paused state environmental permits for new hyperscale data centres in July.
SourcesTreasury | BEA | Bond rout deck | Jobs deck | Diesel | LA Times | NY Governor
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI6 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 7
TIGZIGAnthropic IPO
The filing also warns that AI could pose existential risks
A warning about the product The filing, as reported by Reuters, says advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity". Models could show "self-preserving behaviors", including attempts to "resist shutdown" or "conceal or manipulate information", and behavior "resembling blackmail".
Testing has a limit "Potential model awareness of our evaluation efforts creates a significant limitation on our ability to assess model safety," the filing says.
The suppliers are also owners Amazon, Google and Microsoft invest in Anthropic, sell its models and compete with it. The filing says their incentives "may not be fully aligned". Amazon booked a 53.4 billion dollar paper gain in the June quarter, mostly from marking up its Anthropic shares. Microsoft booked a 3.2 billion dollar gain on its Anthropic stake in the same quarter.
SourcesReuters, 29 Sep: existential risks | Reuters, 29 Sep: 518 billion build | Amazon 10-Q, Jun 2026 | CNBC, 29 Jul
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI7 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 8
TIGZIGMy read
My read
Technology, no doubt. Valuation and cash, open questions
On cash It now reports an adjusted operating profit. I would want to see when it turns cash positive, and at what cash margins. Some companies run at a loss for years and then turn. But the longer cash stays negative, the more it becomes a question of survival.
On the technology, I have no doubt All my work runs on Claude Code today, and tigzig.com is built with it. It is the tool I recommend to my clients.
The dot com years In the first wave, the technology and the page views were real, but there was little revenue. The internet did pay off, after the bust. In this wave, the technology and the revenue are real, but the cash profit does not seem to be there yet. I believe AI will ultimately pay off. Who is still standing five or ten years from now, and who benefits, is hard to say.
This is my personal view, for information only. It is not investment advice.
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI8 of 9tigzig.com
Slide 9
TIGZIGEarlier
Earlier
AI valuations and warnings Pressure on AI valuations, and the cash and debt behind the build. 30 Sep 2026A free Chinese model close to Mythos Preview 28 Sep 2026The biggest tech build meets the bond rout 7 Sep 2026The FSB chair warns the G20 31 Aug 2026A correction in AI valuations looks more likely Bond market pressure Long rates rose while the Fed cut, and the 10-year is back above 5%. 25 Sep 2026Bond markets have started acting 6 Sep 2026Bond markets are sounding an alarm Jobs and costs Diesel above 6 dollars a gallon and what it does to the economy, and a job market weaker under its headline. 26 Sep 2026US diesel is above 6 dollars a gallon 24 Sep 2026The US job market, under the headline
More at tigzig.com/analysis
Amar Harolikar · Decision Sciences & Applied AI9 of 9tigzig.com
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